Espanyol at Villarreal
TV · ESPN Deportes
At lock ESP 0.99–2.26 VIL · 0.3 goals under 3.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
R. Fernández · ESP
ForwardP. Gueye · VIL
Midfielder
At lock: projected ESP 0.99–2.26 VIL · most likely 0–2
Model vs market
Gap: -6 pts of win %, -0.25 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,598 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1962 vs old model 0.2044 vs closing line 0.1912. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
ESP 0.99–2.26 VIL · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): VIL att +0.16 / def -0.01 · ESP att -0.24 / def -0.16 · model VIL 2.3–1.0 ESP
- Home field+0.3 goals to VIL
- RecordVIL 3-3-4 · ESP 2-2-6
Season leaders
- Roberto Fernándezgoals 6
- Roberto Fernándezgoalsleaders 6
- Pape Gueyegoals 3
- Pape Gueyegoalsleaders 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ESP | VIL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -2 | 1 |
| Total Goals | 12 | 15 |
| Assists | 9 | 11 |
| Goals Against | 14 | 14 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Espanyol vs Villarreal prediction · Oct 30, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 52% model probability. The model projected Espanyol 1.0, Villarreal 2.3 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Villarreal 65%, Espanyol 15%, draw 21%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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