Barcelona at Atlético Madrid
FT · ESPN Deportes
2–1
At lock: projected BAR 1.99–1.66 ATM
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4024679773
- Winner: Barcelona (46%)
- Spread: ATM +0.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 3.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
BAR 1.99–1.66 ATM · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ATM att +0.15 / def +0.18 · BAR att +0.65 / def +0.20 · model ATM 1.5–2.0 BAR
- Home field+0.3 goals to ATM
- RecordATM 9-1-2 · BAR 11-0-1
- Market priorBlended 65% toward BAR -110 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAR | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| ATM | 1 | 0 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 10'
Goal! Atletico Madrid 1, Barcelona 0. Giuliano Simeone (Atletico Madrid) right footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Julián Alvarez.
- GOAL1H 45'
Goal! Atletico Madrid 1, Barcelona 1. Fermín López (Barcelona) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner.
- GOAL2H 66'
Goal! Atletico Madrid 1, Barcelona 2. Fermín López (Barcelona) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Lamine Yamal with a through ball.
Game leaders
- Fermín Lópeztotalshots 6
- Pau CubarsíPass 106
- Pau Cubarsídefensiveinterventions 11
- Joan GarcíaSV 3
- Julián Álvareztotalshots 4
- Marcos LlorentePass 41
- Marc Pubilldefensiveinterventions 9
- Jan OblakSV 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BAR | ATM | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 14 | 14 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 4 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 5 |
| Corner Kicks | 2 | 4 |
| Saves | 3 | 3 |
| Possession | 63 | 37 |
| SHOTS | 19 | 9 |
| ON GOAL | 4 | 4 |
| On Target % | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 615 | 317 |
| Passes | 675 | 391 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 2 | 3 |
| Crosses | 9 | 6 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| Long Balls | 33 | 61 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 18 | 29 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 5 | 1 |
| Effective Tackles | 13 | 16 |
| Tackles | 15 | 30 |
| Tackle % | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 10 |
| Effective Clearances | 16 | 10 |
| Clearances | 16 | 10 |
At lock BAR 1.99–1.66 ATM · 0.1 goals over 3.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp Raphinha · BAR
Raphinha Over 3.5 shotsF. López · BAR
MidfielderP. Cubarsí · BAR
DefenderJ. García · BAR
GoalkeeperJ. Álvarez · ATM
ForwardM. Llorente · ATM
Midfielder
Data-Driven Pick · Raphinha Over 3.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Barcelona vs Atlético pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: La Liga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day