Levante at Celta Vigo
FT · ESPN+
0–0
At lock: projected LEV 1.00–1.46 CEL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3974346916
- Winner: Celta Vigo (47%)
- Spread: LEV +0.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
LEV 1.00–1.46 CEL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CEL att -0.16 / def +0.01 · LEV att -0.11 / def -0.17 · model CEL 1.6–1.1 LEV
- Home field+0.3 goals to CEL
- RecordCEL 2-7-3 · LEV 2-5-5
- Market priorBlended 65% toward CEL -125 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LEV | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CEL | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Game leaders
- Roger Bruguétotalshots 3
- Aïssa MandiPass 62
- Jon Ander Olasagastidefensiveinterventions 10
Mathew RyanSV 9
- Pablo Durántotalshots 7
- Marcos AlonsoPass 98
- Sebastián Cáceresdefensiveinterventions 9
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LEV | CEL | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 9 | 8 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 10 |
| Corner Kicks | 1 | 6 |
| Saves | 9 | 0 |
| Possession | 41.3 | 58.7 |
| SHOTS | 6 | 23 |
| ON GOAL | 0 | 8 |
| On Target % | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 378 | 562 |
| Passes | 451 | 631 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 1 | 3 |
| Crosses | 5 | 22 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Long Balls | 69 | 46 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 27 | 25 |
| Long Balls % | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 1 | 6 |
| Effective Tackles | 5 | 6 |
| Tackles | 9 | 11 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 4 |
| Effective Clearances | 24 | 14 |
| Clearances | 24 | 14 |
At lock LEV 1.00–1.46 CEL · 0.04 goals under 2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp W. Swedberg · CEL
W. Swedberg Over 2.5 shotsR. Brugué · LEV
MidfielderA. Mandi · LEV
DefenderJ. Olasagasti · LEV
MidfielderM. Ryan · LEV
GoalkeeperP. Durán · CEL
Forward
Data-Driven Pick · W. Swedberg Over 2.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Levante vs Celta Vigo pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 51% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: La Liga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day