Real Betis at Elche
FT · ESPN+
2–0
At lock: projected BET 1.49–1.28 ELC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3991124535
- Winner: Betis (42%)
- Spread: ELC +0.5 covers (58%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (53%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
BET 1.49–1.28 ELC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ELC att -0.19 / def -0.15 · BET att +0.10 / def -0.03 · model ELC 1.4–1.6 BET
- Home field+0.3 goals to ELC
- RecordELC 2-4-6 · BET 8-2-2
- Market priorBlended 65% toward BET -125 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BET | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| ELC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 81'
Goal! Elche 0, Real Betis 1. Rodrigo Riquelme (Real Betis) right footed shot from very close range to the high centre of the goal.
- GOAL2H 89'
Goal! Elche 0, Real Betis 2. Marc Bartra (Real Betis) header from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Dani Ceballos with a cross following a corner.
Game leaders
Antonytotalshots 3- Marc RocaPass 60
- Fran Garcíadefensiveinterventions 14
- Álvaro VallesSV 1
- Lucas Cepedatotalshots 3
- Víctor ChustPass 69
- Federico Redondodefensiveinterventions 15
- Matías DituroSV 7
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BET | ELC | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 7 | 12 |
| Yellow Cards | 0 | 4 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 3 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks | 8 | 9 |
| Saves | 1 | 7 |
| Possession | 52.1 | 47.9 |
| SHOTS | 18 | 13 |
| ON GOAL | 9 | 1 |
| On Target % | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 470 | 429 |
| Passes | 530 | 487 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 10 | 3 |
| Crosses | 26 | 24 |
| Cross % | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Long Balls | 44 | 40 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 26 | 22 |
| Long Balls % | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 5 |
| Effective Tackles | 6 | 11 |
| Tackles | 8 | 15 |
| Tackle % | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 16 | 11 |
| Effective Clearances | 23 | 29 |
| Clearances | 23 | 29 |
At lock BET 1.49–1.28 ELC · 0.3 goals over 2.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp N. Deossa · BET
N. Deossa Over 2.5 shotsAntony · BET
ForwardM. Roca · BET
MidfielderF. García · BET
DefenderÁ. Valles · BET
GoalkeeperL. Cepeda · ELC
Forward
Data-Driven Pick · N. Deossa Over 2.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Betis vs Elche pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: La Liga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day