Deportivo at Espanyol
FT · ESPN Deportes
0–0
At lock: projected DEP 1.04–1.42 ESP
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3940791678
- Winner: Espanyol (45%)
- Spread: DEP +0.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
DEP 1.04–1.42 ESP · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ESP att -0.26 / def -0.10 · DEP att -0.14 / def -0.06 · model ESP 1.3–1.2 DEP
- Home field+0.3 goals to ESP
- RecordESP 3-3-6 · DEP 3-6-3
- Market priorBlended 65% toward ESP +150 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEP | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ESP | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Game leaders
- Luismi Cruztotalshots 2
- José María GiménezPass 33
- Miguel Loureirodefensiveinterventions 16
- Leo RománSV 4
- Roberto Fernándeztotalshots 3
- Leandro CabreraPass 85
- Omar El Hilalidefensiveinterventions 10
- Ángel FortuñoSV 1
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| DEP | ESP | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 10 | 17 |
| Yellow Cards | 4 | 4 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 5 | 9 |
| Saves | 4 | 1 |
| Possession | 36.2 | 63.8 |
| SHOTS | 5 | 11 |
| ON GOAL | 1 | 4 |
| On Target % | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 221 | 426 |
| Passes | 281 | 506 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 2 | 6 |
| Crosses | 21 | 26 |
| Cross % | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 62 | 45 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 34 | 22 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 1 | 5 |
| Effective Tackles | 10 | 9 |
| Tackles | 20 | 13 |
| Tackle % | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 6 |
| Effective Clearances | 38 | 17 |
| Clearances | 38 | 17 |
At lock DEP 1.04–1.42 ESP · 0.04 goals under 2.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp C. Riedel · ESP
C. Riedel Over 0.5 shotsL. Cruz · DEP
ForwardJ. Giménez · DEP
DefenderM. Loureiro · DEP
DefenderL. Román · DEP
GoalkeeperR. Fernández · ESP
Forward
Data-Driven Pick · C. Riedel Over 0.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Deportivo vs Espanyol pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: La Liga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day