Racing Santander at Málaga
FT · ESPN Deportes
2–1
At lock: projected RAC 1.19–1.66 MCF
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3957569297
- Winner: Málaga (49%)
- Spread: RAC +0.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
RAC 1.19–1.66 MCF · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): MCF att -0.22 / def -0.19 · RAC att -0.09 / def -0.27 · model MCF 1.7–1.3 RAC
- Home field+0.3 goals to MCF
- RecordMCF 0-5-7 · RAC 4-2-6
- Market priorBlended 65% toward MCF +125 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RAC | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| MCF | 1 | 0 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 28'
Goal! Malaga 1, Racing de Santander 0. Carlos Dotor (Malaga) right footed shot from the right side of the six yard box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Adrián Niño.
- GOAL2H 50'
Goal! Malaga 1, Racing de Santander 1. Iker Luque (Racing de Santander) right footed shot from the right side of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Pablo Ramón.
- GOAL2H 60'
Goal! Malaga 1, Racing de Santander 2. Yassir Zabiri (Racing de Santander) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner following a fast break.
Game leaders
- Iker Luquetotalshots 5
- Matteo PratiPass 62
- Pedro Felipedefensiveinterventions 9
- Julen AgirrezabalaSV 7
- Adrián Niñototalshots 8
- Ramón EnríquezPass 46
- Fernando Calerodefensiveinterventions 11
- Alfonso HerreroSV 5
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| RAC | MCF | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 5 | 11 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 4 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 1 |
| Offsides | 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 3 | 6 |
| Saves | 7 | 5 |
| Possession | 53.6 | 46.4 |
| SHOTS | 21 | 16 |
| ON GOAL | 7 | 8 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 431 | 360 |
| Passes | 504 | 427 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 0 | 7 |
| Crosses | 5 | 17 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Long Balls | 31 | 48 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 16 | 22 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 5 | 1 |
| Effective Tackles | 16 | 18 |
| Tackles | 23 | 28 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 5 |
| Effective Clearances | 16 | 16 |
| Clearances | 16 | 16 |
At lock RAC 1.19–1.66 MCF · 0.3 goals over 2.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp D. Larrubia · MCF
D. Larrubia Over 2.5 shotsI. Luque · RAC
ForwardM. Prati · RAC
MidfielderPedro Felipe · RAC
DefenderJ. Agirrezabala · RAC
GoalkeeperA. Niño · MCF
Forward
Data-Driven Pick · D. Larrubia Over 2.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Racing vs Málaga pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: La Liga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day