Athletic Club at Osasuna
FT · ESPN Deportes
1–1
At lock: projected ATH 1.37–1.03 OSA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3907236440
- Winner: Athletic (44%)
- Spread: OSA +0.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)0
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ATH 1.37–1.03 OSA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): OSA att -0.22 / def -0.16 · ATH att -0.12 / def +0.05 · model OSA 1.2–1.3 ATH
- Home field+0.3 goals to OSA
- RecordOSA 3-3-6 · ATH 4-4-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ATH +100 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATH | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| OSA | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 84'
Goal! Osasuna 0, Athletic Club 1. Nico Williams (Athletic Club) right footed shot from very close range to the bottom left corner following a fast break.
- GOAL2H 90'
Goal! Osasuna 1, Athletic Club 1. Alejandro Catena (Osasuna) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the high centre of the goal following a corner.
Game leaders
- Álex Berenguertotalshots 3
- Dani VivianPass 80
- Dani Viviandefensiveinterventions 16
- Unai SimónSV 4
- Lucas Torrótotalshots 5
- Lucas TorróPass 33
- Alejandro Catenadefensiveinterventions 11
- Aitor FernándezSV 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ATH | OSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 10 | 19 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 3 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 4 | 6 |
| Saves | 4 | 3 |
| Possession | 60.7 | 39.3 |
| SHOTS | 16 | 17 |
| ON GOAL | 4 | 5 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 476 | 251 |
| Passes | 546 | 336 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Accurate Crosses | 4 | 7 |
| Crosses | 14 | 29 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 53 | 68 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 30 | 31 |
| Long Balls % | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 5 | 4 |
| Effective Tackles | 8 | 10 |
| Tackles | 12 | 20 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 11 |
| Effective Clearances | 35 | 23 |
| Clearances | 35 | 23 |
At lock ATH 1.37–1.03 OSA · 0.1 goals under 2.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp O. Sancet · ATH
O. Sancet Over 2.5 shotsÁ. Berenguer · ATH
ForwardD. Vivian · ATH
DefenderU. Simón · ATH
GoalkeeperL. Torró · OSA
MidfielderA. Catena · OSA
Defender
Data-Driven Pick · O. Sancet Over 2.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Athletic vs Osasuna pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 2.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: La Liga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day