Rayo Vallecano at Real Sociedad
FT · ESPN+
0–1
At lock: projected RAY 1.29–1.75 RSO
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3924014059
- Winner: Real Sociedad (48%)
- Spread: RAY +0.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (65%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
RAY 1.29–1.75 RSO · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): RSO att +0.00 / def -0.17 · RAY att -0.14 / def -0.04 · model RSO 1.7–1.3 RAY
- Home field+0.3 goals to RSO
- RecordRSO 7-1-4 · RAY 3-3-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward RSO -115 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RAY | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| RSO | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 67'
Goal! Real Sociedad 1, Rayo Vallecano 0. Orri Óskarsson (Real Sociedad) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Ander Barrenetxea with a through ball following a fast break.
Game leaders
- Giorgi Tsitaishvilitotalshots 2
- Florian LejeunePass 54
Andrei Ratiudefensiveinterventions 12- Emil AuderoSV 2
- Orri Óskarssontotalshots 3
- Jon MartínPass 64
- Jon Martíndefensiveinterventions 9
- Álex RemiroSV 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| RAY | RSO | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 8 | 11 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 6 | 7 |
| Saves | 2 | 3 |
| Possession | 49.2 | 50.8 |
| SHOTS | 11 | 17 |
| ON GOAL | 3 | 3 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 388 | 417 |
| Passes | 448 | 472 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 4 | 6 |
| Crosses | 21 | 18 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 49 | 56 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 21 | 38 |
| Long Balls % | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Blocked Shots | 2 | 8 |
| Effective Tackles | 14 | 14 |
| Tackles | 26 | 22 |
| Tackle % | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 3 |
| Effective Clearances | 13 | 21 |
| Clearances | 13 | 21 |
At lock RAY 1.29–1.75 RSO · 0.5 goals under 3.5 · 61% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp M. Oyarzabal · RSO
M. Oyarzabal Over 3.5 shotsG. Tsitaishvili · RAY
ForwardF. Lejeune · RAY
DefenderA. Ratiu · RAY
DefenderE. Audero · RAY
GoalkeeperO. Óskarsson · RSO
Forward
Data-Driven Pick · M. Oyarzabal Over 3.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Rayo vs Real Sociedad pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 61% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: La Liga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day