La LigaFinalRamón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium

Alavés at Sevilla

FT · ESPN Deportes

0–0

AlavésSevilla

Final

Alavés

3-4-5

Form WDLDL · 15 PF · 17 PA

Final

Sevilla

5-3-4

Form DLWWL · 17 PF · 19 PA

ALA 30%Draw 25%SEV 45%

At lock: projected ALA 1.18–1.52 SEV

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 6:33 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3974199821

Missed · off by 3

Most typical sim

ALA 1 – SEV 2

Final

ALA 0 – SEV 0

Winner: Sevilla (46%)
Spread: ALA +0.5 covers (54%)
Total: Over 2.5 (50%)
Score error (both teams)3

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

ALA 1.18–1.52 SEV · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): SEV att -0.16 / def -0.11 · ALA att -0.19 / def -0.04 · model SEV 1.4–1.1 ALA
Home field
+0.3 goals to SEV
Record
SEV 5-3-4 · ALA 3-4-5
Market prior
Blended 65% toward SEV +100 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
ALA	0	0	0
SEV	0	0	0

Game leaders

Nicolás Valentini
totalshots 2
Antonio Blanco
Pass 22
Pablo Ibáñez
defensiveinterventions 13
Antonio Sivera
SV 2

Juan Iglesias
totalshots 4
Enrique Salas
Pass 49
Enrique Salas
defensiveinterventions 11
Odisseas Vlachodimos
SV 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ALA	SEV
Fouls	19	14
Yellow Cards	3	1
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	2	3
Corner Kicks	4	5
Saves	2	2
Possession	39.9	60.1
SHOTS	9	13
ON GOAL	2	3
On Target %	0.2	0.2
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	1
Accurate Passes	159	294
Passes	262	391
Pass Completion %	0.6	0.8
Accurate Crosses	7	7
Crosses	15	23
Cross %	0.5	0.3
Long Balls	77	61
Accurate Long Balls	22	27
Long Balls %	0.3	0.4
Blocked Shots	0	4
Effective Tackles	13	13
Tackles	20	22
Tackle %	0.7	0.6
Interceptions	8	15
Effective Clearances	40	19
Clearances	40	19

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

45%

At lock ALA 1.18–1.52 SEV · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 45% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop R. Vargas · SEV
R. Vargas Over 2.5 shots
N. Valentini · ALA
Defender
A. Blanco · ALA
Midfielder
P. Ibáñez · ALA
Midfielder
A. Sivera · ALA
Goalkeeper
J. Iglesias · SEV
Defender

Data-Driven Pick · R. Vargas Over 2.5 shots

-105Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Alavés vs Sevilla pick result · Nov 6, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 45% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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