Real Madrid at Valencia
FT · ESPN Deportes
3–0
At lock: projected RMA 2.21–0.91 VAL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3957422202
- Winner: Real Madrid (67%)
- Spread: VAL +1.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (63%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
RMA 2.21–0.91 VAL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): VAL att -0.31 / def -0.08 · RMA att +0.40 / def +0.27 · model VAL 0.9–2.0 RMA
- Home field+0.3 goals to VAL
- RecordVAL 2-3-7 · RMA 10-0-2
- Market priorBlended 65% toward RMA -425 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RMA | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| VAL | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 28'
Goal! Valencia 0, Real Madrid 1. Federico Valverde (Real Madrid) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom left corner following a set piece situation.
- GOAL1H 36'
Goal! Valencia 0, Real Madrid 2. Arda Güler (Real Madrid) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the top right corner.
- GOAL2H 75'
Goal! Valencia 0, Real Madrid 3. Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) right footed shot from the right side of the six yard box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Arda Güler with a through ball.
Game leaders
- Kylian Mbappétotalshots 6
- Dean HuijsenPass 79
- Dean Huijsendefensiveinterventions 10
- Thibaut CourtoisSV 2
- Aaron Mayoltotalshots 1
- PepeluPass 30
- Pepeludefensiveinterventions 10
- Stole DimitrievskiSV 8
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| RMA | VAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 6 | 26 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 4 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 1 |
| Offsides | 5 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks | 5 | 2 |
| Saves | 2 | 8 |
| Possession | 68.3 | 31.7 |
| SHOTS | 19 | 4 |
| ON GOAL | 11 | 2 |
| On Target % | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 568 | 225 |
| Passes | 627 | 288 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 5 | 1 |
| Crosses | 13 | 5 |
| Cross % | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 63 | 49 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 46 | 19 |
| Long Balls % | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Blocked Shots | 5 | 2 |
| Effective Tackles | 9 | 10 |
| Tackles | 12 | 16 |
| Tackle % | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 10 |
| Effective Clearances | 11 | 14 |
| Clearances | 11 | 14 |
At lock RMA 2.21–0.91 VAL · 0.4 goals under 3.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp S. Dimitrievski · VAL
S. Dimitrievski Over 4.5 savesK. Mbappé · RMA
ForwardD. Huijsen · RMA
DefenderT. Courtois · RMA
GoalkeeperA. Mayol · VAL
MidfielderPepelu · VAL
Midfielder
Data-Driven Pick · S. Dimitrievski Over 4.5 saves
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Real Madrid vs Valencia pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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