Getafe at Villarreal
FT · ESPN+
0–2
Model: GET 0.96–1.62 VIL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3739313155
- Winner: Villarreal (68%)
- Spread: GET +1.5 covers (58%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
GET 0.96–1.62 VIL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): VIL att +0.13 / def +0.00 · GET att -0.49 / def +0.07 · model VIL 1.7–0.7 GET
- Home field+0.3 goals to VIL
- RecordVIL 4-3-5 · GET 3-3-6
- Market priorBlended 65% toward VIL -180 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GET | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VIL | 0 | 2 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 80'
Goal! Villarreal 1, Getafe 0. Tajon Buchanan (Villarreal) right footed shot from the left side of the six yard box to the top left corner. Assisted by Nicolas Pepe with a cross.
- GOAL2H 90'+1'
Goal! Villarreal 2, Getafe 0. Carlos Romero (Villarreal) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Ayoze Pérez with a through ball.
Game leaders
- Sebastián Bosellitotalshots 2
- David SoriaPass 17
- Sebastián Bosellidefensiveinterventions 25
- David SoriaSV 5
Tajon Buchanantotalshots 4- Logan CostaPass 103
- Logan Costadefensiveinterventions 14
- Péter GulácsiSV 1
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| GET | VIL | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 13 | 6 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 4 | 9 |
| Saves | 5 | 1 |
| Possession | 27.6 | 72.4 |
| SHOTS | 9 | 22 |
| ON GOAL | 1 | 7 |
| On Target % | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 133 | 488 |
| Passes | 219 | 566 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 1 | 3 |
| Crosses | 7 | 26 |
| Cross % | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Long Balls | 62 | 62 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 24 | 31 |
| Long Balls % | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 10 |
| Effective Tackles | 15 | 14 |
| Tackles | 20 | 22 |
| Tackle % | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 8 |
| Effective Clearances | 51 | 18 |
| Clearances | 51 | 18 |
Model projects GET 0.96 – 1.62 VIL · no lean was locked before the game
Prop T. Buchanan · VIL
T. Buchanan Over 2.5 shotsS. Boselli · GET
DefenderD. Soria · GET
GoalkeeperL. Costa · VIL
DefenderP. Gulácsi · VIL
Goalkeeper
Data-Driven Pick · T. Buchanan Over 2.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Getafe vs Villarreal pick result · Nov 8, 2026
Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: La Liga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day