La LigaFri 2:00 PM CTSan Mamés

Espanyol at Athletic Club

TV · ESPN Deportes

EspanyolAthletic

Fri 2:00 PM CT

Lean · TotalNot a strong play

Under 2.5

+100 at lock48%

Model projects ESP 0.90 – 1.59 ATH · below the strong-play bar (edge -2.2%; strong needs +3%) · informational lean, not a recommended bet

Players

R. Fernández · ESP
Forward
Á. Berenguer · ATH
Forward

Projected prop · Álex Berenguer (ATH) 0.42 goals · 0.36 goals/game this season, × 1.16 for the projected ATH score

Line not posted yet

Espanyol

3-3-6

Form DWLLL · 13 PF · 14 PA

0.90

Projected

Athletic Club

4-4-3

Form DWWWL · 15 PF · 11 PA

1.59

ESP 21%Draw 25%ATH 53%

At lock: projected ESP 0.90–1.59 ATH · most likely 0–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

ATH win

66%

81% (no-vig)

Total

2.49

2.5

Gap: -15 pts of win %, -0.01 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,598 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1962 vs old model 0.2044 vs closing line 0.1912. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

ESP 0.90–1.59 ATH · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ATH att -0.12 / def +0.05 · ESP att -0.26 / def -0.10 · model ATH 1.6–0.9 ESP
Home field
+0.3 goals to ATH
Record
ATH 4-4-3 · ESP 3-3-6

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Roberto Fernández
goals 6
Roberto Fernández
goalsleaders 6

Álex Berenguer
goals 4
Álex Berenguer
goalsleaders 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ESP	ATH
Goal Difference	-1	4
Total Goals	13	15
Assists	10	9
Goals Against	14	11

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Espanyol vs Athletic prediction · Nov 20, 2026

The model projects Espanyol 0.9, Athletic 1.6. Model win probability: Athletic 53%, Espanyol 21%, draw 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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