EredivisieSat 10:30 AM CTDe Kuip

Fortuna Sittard at Feyenoord Rotterdam

TV · ESPN+

Sat 10:30 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 3.5

51%

At lock FOR 0.92–2.87 FEY · 0.3 goals over 3.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

A. Descotte · FOR
Forward
A. Hadj Moussa · FEY
Forward

Fortuna Sittard

5-3-2

Form DDDWL · 17 PF · 17 PA

0.92

Projected

Feyenoord Rotterdam

7-3-0

Form DLWWW · 32 PF · 11 PA

2.87

FOR 10%Draw 15%FEY 75%

At lock: projected FOR 0.92–2.87 FEY · most likely 0–2 · likeliest Over 3.5 score 1–3

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

FEY win

84%

92% (no-vig)

Total

3.79

3.5

Gap: -8 pts of win %, +0.29 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 529 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1983 vs old model 0.2269. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

FOR 0.92–2.87 FEY · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): FEY att +0.35 / def +0.29 · FOR att -0.22 / def -0.10 · model FEY 2.9–0.9 FOR
Home field
+0.3 goals to FEY
Record
FEY 7-3-0 · FOR 5-3-2

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Anthony Descotte
goals 5
Anthony Descotte
goalsleaders 5

Anis Hadj Moussa
goals 6
Anis Hadj Moussa
goalsleaders 6

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	FOR	FEY
Goal Difference	0	21
Total Goals	17	32
Assists	11	20
Goals Against	17	11

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Fortuna vs Feyenoord prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Fortuna 0.9, Feyenoord 2.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Feyenoord 75%, Fortuna 10%, draw 15%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Eredivisie picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day