EredivisieSat 12:45 PM CTPhilips Stadion

Willem II at PSV Eindhoven

TV · ESPN+

Sat 12:45 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 4.5

53%

At lock WIL 0.85–4.62 PSV · 1.0 goals over 4.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

D. Haen · WIL
Forward
G. Til · PSV
Midfielder

Willem II

0-2-8

Form DLLLL · 10 PF · 32 PA

0.85

Projected

PSV Eindhoven

6-2-2

Form DWLLW · 28 PF · 13 PA

4.62

WIL 10%Draw 7%PSV 83%

At lock: projected WIL 0.85–4.62 PSV · most likely 0–4 · likeliest Over 4.5 score 0–5

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

PSV win

95%

94% (no-vig)

Total

5.46

4.5

Gap: +1 pts of win %, +0.96 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 529 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1983 vs old model 0.2269. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

WIL 0.85–4.62 PSV · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): PSV att +0.54 / def +0.20 · WIL att -0.40 / def -0.38 · model PSV 4.6–0.8 WIL
Home field
+0.3 goals to PSV
Record
PSV 6-2-2 · WIL 0-2-8

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Devin Haen
goals 3
Devin Haen
goalsleaders 3

Guus Til
goals 6
Guus Til
goalsleaders 6

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	WIL	PSV
Goal Difference	-22	15
Total Goals	10	28
Assists	9	18
Goals Against	32	13

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Willem II vs PSV prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 4.5, with a 53% model probability. The model projected Willem II 0.8, PSV 4.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: PSV 83%, Willem II 10%, draw 7%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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