EredivisieSat 12:45 PM CTAbe Lenstra Stadion

NEC Nijmegen at Heerenveen

TV · ESPN+

Sat 12:45 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

51%

At lock NEC 1.60–1.84 HEE · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

T. Chery · NEC
Midfielder
J. Trenskow · HEE
Forward

NEC Nijmegen

2-5-3

Form DWDDD · 17 PF · 18 PA

1.60

Projected

Heerenveen

4-3-3

Form DWLWD · 18 PF · 13 PA

1.84

NEC 33%Draw 24%HEE 43%

At lock: projected NEC 1.60–1.84 HEE · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

HEE win

55%

59% (no-vig)

Total

3.44

3.5

Gap: -4 pts of win %, -0.06 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 529 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1983 vs old model 0.2269. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

NEC 1.60–1.84 HEE · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): HEE att -0.03 / def +0.04 · NEC att +0.07 / def -0.03 · model HEE 1.8–1.6 NEC
Home field
+0.3 goals to HEE
Record
HEE 4-3-3 · NEC 2-5-3

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Tjaronn Chery
goals 4
Tjaronn Chery
goalsleaders 4

Jacob Trenskow
goals 6
Jacob Trenskow
goalsleaders 6

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NEC	HEE
Goal Difference	-1	5
Total Goals	17	18
Assists	10	15
Goals Against	18	13

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

NEC vs Heerenveen prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected NEC 1.6, Heerenveen 1.8 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Heerenveen 43%, NEC 33%, draw 24%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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