EredivisieSat 3:00 PM CTKooi Stadium

Go Ahead Eagles at SC Cambuur

Sat 3:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 3.5

50%

At lock GAE 2.19–1.51 CAM · 0.2 goals over 3.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

S. Tengstedt · GAE
Midfielder
R. El Arguioui · CAM
Midfielder

Go Ahead Eagles

3-5-2

Form DLDDD · 23 PF · 23 PA

2.19

Projected

SC Cambuur

3-3-4

Form DDWDW · 19 PF · 22 PA

1.51

GAE 52%Draw 22%CAM 26%

At lock: projected GAE 2.19–1.51 CAM · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 3.5 score 2–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

CAM win

37%

43% (no-vig)

Total

3.70

3.5

Gap: -6 pts of win %, +0.20 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 529 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1983 vs old model 0.2269. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

GAE 2.19–1.51 CAM · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CAM att -0.33 / def -0.32 · GAE att +0.03 / def -0.14 · model CAM 1.5–2.2 GAE
Home field
+0.3 goals to CAM
Record
CAM 3-3-4 · GAE 3-5-2

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Sören Tengstedt
goals 8
Sören Tengstedt
goalsleaders 8

Rafik El Arguioui
goals 5
Rafik El Arguioui
goalsleaders 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	GAE	CAM
Goal Difference	0	-3
Total Goals	23	19
Assists	16	14
Goals Against	23	22

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Go Ahead Eagles vs Cambuur prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Go Ahead Eagles 2.2, Cambuur 1.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Cambuur 26%, Go Ahead Eagles 52%, draw 22%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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