ADO Den Haag at PEC Zwolle
FT
0–1
At lock: projected ADO 1.26–1.54 PEC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:14 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2144569377
- Winner: PEC Zwolle (45%)
- Spread: ADO +0.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ADO 1.26–1.54 PEC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): PEC att -0.32 / def -0.24 · ADO att -0.16 / def -0.15 · model PEC 1.6–1.7 ADO
- Home field+0.3 goals to PEC
- RecordPEC 3-2-6 · ADO 1-3-7
- Market priorBlended 66% toward PEC +140 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADO | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PEC | 1 | 0 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 45'
Goal! PEC Zwolle 1, ADO Den Haag 0. Dylan Mbayo (PEC Zwolle) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Younes Namli.
Game leaders
Evan Rottiertotalshots 5
Matteo WaemPass 81
Pascal Mulderdefensiveinterventions 15
Kilian NikiemaSV 4
Sydney van Hooijdonktotalshots 5
Ryan ThomasPass 24
Tobias Sommerdefensiveinterventions 13
Jasper SchendelaarSV 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ADO | PEC | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 9 | 15 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 3 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 2 | 8 |
| Saves | 4 | 3 |
| Possession | 65.8 | 34.2 |
| SHOTS | 12 | 24 |
| ON GOAL | 3 | 5 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 439 | 175 |
| Passes | 531 | 268 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Accurate Crosses | 6 | 9 |
| Crosses | 24 | 20 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Long Balls | 72 | 60 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 44 | 13 |
| Long Balls % | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Blocked Shots | 4 | 8 |
| Effective Tackles | 6 | 11 |
| Tackles | 8 | 18 |
| Tackle % | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 11 |
| Effective Clearances | 31 | 26 |
| Clearances | 31 | 26 |
At lock ADO 1.26–1.54 PEC · 0.3 goals over 2.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp Y. Eduardo anytime goal · ADO
Y. Eduardo anytime goalE. Rottier · ADO
ForwardM. Waem · ADO
DefenderP. Mulder · ADO
DefenderK. Nikiema · ADO
GoalkeeperS. van Hooijdonk · PEC
Forward
Data-Driven Pick · Y. Eduardo anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
ADO Den Haag vs PEC Zwolle pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 58% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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