EredivisieFinalStadion Woudestein

FC Twente at Excelsior

9–0

FC TwenteExcelsior

Final

FC Twente

7-2-2

Form DWWWW · 30 PF · 12 PA

Final

Excelsior

3-2-6

Form LLWLL · 16 PF · 29 PA

TWE 51%Draw 22%EXC 27%

At lock: projected TWE 1.95–1.38 EXC

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:14 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2127938853

Winner called · off by 8

Most typical sim

TWE 2 – EXC 1

Final

TWE 9 – EXC 0

Winner: FC Twente (52%)
Spread: TWE -0.5 covers (52%)
Total: Under 3.5 (57%)
Score error (both teams)8

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

TWE 1.95–1.38 EXC · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): EXC att -0.26 / def -0.26 · TWE att +0.21 / def +0.27 · model EXC 1.1–2.5 TWE
Home field
+0.3 goals to EXC
Record
EXC 3-2-6 · TWE 7-2-2
Market prior
Blended 66% toward TWE -205 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
TWE	5	4	9
EXC	0	0	0

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 12'
Goal! Excelsior 0, Twente 1. Wout Weghorst (Twente) header from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Sondre Ørjasæter with a cross.
GOAL1H 32'
Goal! Excelsior 0, Twente 2. Wout Weghorst (Twente) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Sondre Ørjasæter.
GOAL1H 33'
Goal! Excelsior 0, Twente 3. Wout Weghorst (Twente) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Sondre Ørjasæter.
GOAL1H 39'
Goal! Excelsior 0, Twente 4. Thomas van den Belt (Twente) left footed shot from the left side of the box to the centre of the goal.
GOAL1H 45'+1'
Goal! Excelsior 0, Twente 5. Daan Rots (Twente) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Sondre Ørjasæter.
GOAL2H 49'
Goal! Excelsior 0, Twente 6. Jordy Bawuah (Twente) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Sondre Ørjasæter.
GOAL2H 62'
Goal! Excelsior 0, Twente 7. Wout Weghorst (Twente) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom left corner.
GOAL2H 71'
Goal! Excelsior 0, Twente 8. Ramiz Zerrouki (Twente) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom left corner.
GOAL2H 82'
Goal! Excelsior 0, Twente 9. Daan Rots (Twente) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Thomas van den Belt with a through ball.

Game leaders

Wout Weghorst
totalshots 5
Ramiz Zerrouki
Pass 118
Thomas van den Belt
defensiveinterventions 8

Stijn van Gassel
Pass 28
Jan Plug
defensiveinterventions 20
Stijn van Gassel
SV 6

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TWE	EXC
Fouls	6	7
Yellow Cards	1	1
Red Cards	0	1
Offsides	4	1
Corner Kicks	8	0
Saves	0	6
Possession	79.8	20.2
SHOTS	28	0
ON GOAL	15	0
On Target %	0.5	0.0
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	2	0
Accurate Passes	775	152
Passes	859	221
Pass Completion %	0.9	0.7
Accurate Crosses	7	2
Crosses	26	3
Cross %	0.3	0.7
Long Balls	44	70
Accurate Long Balls	27	33
Long Balls %	0.6	0.5
Blocked Shots	6	0
Effective Tackles	11	6
Tackles	12	12
Tackle %	0.9	0.5
Interceptions	5	16
Effective Clearances	3	32
Clearances	3	32

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

57%

At lock TWE 1.95–1.38 EXC · 0.2 goals under 3.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop L. Vennegoor Of Hesselink anytime goal · TWE
L. Vennegoor Of Hesselink anytime goal
W. Weghorst · TWE
Forward
R. Zerrouki · TWE
Midfielder
T. van den Belt · TWE
Midfielder
S. van Gassel · EXC
Goalkeeper
J. Plug · EXC
Defender

Data-Driven Pick · L. Vennegoor Of Hesselink anytime goal

+155Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

FC Twente vs Excelsior pick result · Nov 1, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 57% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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