FC Utrecht at Telstar
FT
2–4
At lock: projected UTR 1.89–1.54 TEL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:14 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2111161234
- Winner: FC Utrecht (46%)
- Spread: TEL +0.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
UTR 1.89–1.54 TEL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): TEL att -0.10 / def -0.12 · UTR att +0.00 / def -0.10 · model TEL 1.9–1.8 UTR
- Home field+0.3 goals to TEL
- RecordTEL 2-3-6 · UTR 3-3-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward UTR +100 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTR | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| TEL | 3 | 1 | 4 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 8'
Goal! Telstar 1, Utrecht 0. Tyrone Owusu (Telstar) right footed shot from the right side of the six yard box to the bottom right corner following a fast break.
- GOAL1H 25'
Goal! Telstar 2, Utrecht 0. Abdelnour Soualhia (Telstar) header from very close range to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Ar'Jany Martha with a cross following a corner.
- GOAL1H 42'
Goal! Telstar 2, Utrecht 1. Ángel Alarcón (Utrecht) header from the centre of the box to the top left corner. Assisted by Marius Broholm with a cross.
- GOAL1H 44'
Goal! Telstar 3, Utrecht 1. Nökkvi Thórisson (Telstar) left footed shot from the left side of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Tyrone Owusu with a through ball.
- GOAL2H 46'
Goal! Telstar 3, Utrecht 2. Yoann Cathline (Utrecht) right footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Joris van Overeem.
- GOAL2H 59'
Goal! Telstar 4, Utrecht 2. Ar'Jany Martha (Telstar) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Nökkvi Thórisson following a fast break.
Game leaders
- Marius Broholmtotalshots 3
Joris van OvereemPass 74- Joris van Overeemdefensiveinterventions 12
Sergio PadtSV 3
- Nökkvi Thórissontotalshots 4
Nils RossenPass 34
Abdelnour Soualhiadefensiveinterventions 18
Ronald KoemanSV 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UTR | TEL | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 20 | 10 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 0 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 2 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks | 9 | 3 |
| Saves | 3 | 3 |
| Possession | 65.3 | 34.7 |
| SHOTS | 15 | 16 |
| ON GOAL | 5 | 7 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 447 | 225 |
| Passes | 541 | 300 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 8 | 1 |
| Crosses | 39 | 7 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Long Balls | 49 | 51 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 14 | 23 |
| Long Balls % | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 4 |
| Effective Tackles | 10 | 14 |
| Tackles | 14 | 20 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 14 |
| Effective Clearances | 15 | 46 |
| Clearances | 15 | 46 |
At lock UTR 1.89–1.54 TEL · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock
MissM. Broholm · UTR
ForwardJ. van Overeem · UTR
MidfielderS. Padt · UTR
GoalkeeperN. Thórisson · TEL
ForwardN. Rossen · TEL
MidfielderA. Soualhia · TEL
Defender
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
FC Utrecht vs Telstar pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 58% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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