Sparta Rotterdam at FC Groningen
FT
3–2
At lock: projected SPA 1.41–2.02 GRO
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:14 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2161494091
- Winner: FC Groningen (52%)
- Spread: GRO -0.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SPA 1.41–2.02 GRO · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): GRO att -0.02 / def -0.10 · SPA att -0.22 / def -0.19 · model GRO 2.2–1.4 SPA
- Home field+0.3 goals to GRO
- RecordGRO 4-3-4 · SPA 3-3-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward GRO -140 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPA | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| GRO | 2 | 0 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 1'
Goal! Groningen 1, Sparta Rotterdam 0. Jacob Ondrejka (Groningen) left footed shot from the left side of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Brynjólfur Willumsson.
- GOAL1H 15'
Goal! Groningen 1, Sparta Rotterdam 1. Cedric Hatenboer (Sparta Rotterdam) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Marvin Young with a through ball.
- GOAL1H 25'
Goal! Groningen 1, Sparta Rotterdam 2. Milan Zonneveld (Sparta Rotterdam) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner.
- GOAL1H 29'
Goal! Groningen 2, Sparta Rotterdam 2. Thom van Bergen (Groningen) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Hans Hateboer with a through ball.
- GOAL2H 85'
Goal! Groningen 2, Sparta Rotterdam 3. Andrej Kostic (Sparta Rotterdam) right footed shot from outside the box to the centre of the goal.
Game leaders
Milan Zonneveldtotalshots 4
Marvin YoungPass 47- Marvin Youngdefensiveinterventions 15
Michael BrouwerSV 8
- Jacob Ondrejkatotalshots 5
Thijmen BlokzijlPass 57- Thijmen Blokzijldefensiveinterventions 11
Etienne VaessenSV 1
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SPA | GRO | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 14 | 8 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 3 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 7 | 2 |
| Saves | 8 | 1 |
| Possession | 41.1 | 58.9 |
| SHOTS | 8 | 20 |
| ON GOAL | 4 | 10 |
| On Target % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 267 | 419 |
| Passes | 346 | 504 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 1 | 3 |
| Crosses | 15 | 13 |
| Cross % | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 67 | 68 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 18 | 32 |
| Long Balls % | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 2 | 3 |
| Effective Tackles | 5 | 11 |
| Tackles | 9 | 17 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Interceptions | 8 | 4 |
| Effective Clearances | 38 | 23 |
| Clearances | 38 | 23 |
At lock SPA 1.41–2.02 GRO · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
MissM. Zonneveld · SPA
ForwardM. Young · SPA
DefenderM. Brouwer · SPA
GoalkeeperJ. Ondrejka · GRO
ForwardT. Blokzijl · GRO
DefenderE. Vaessen · GRO
Goalkeeper
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Sparta vs FC Groningen pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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