PEC Zwolle at Willem II
FT
1–1
At lock: projected PEC 1.68–1.64 WIL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 5:27 AM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2144716472
- Winner: PEC Zwolle (39%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (65%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
PEC 1.68–1.64 WIL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): WIL att -0.42 / def -0.41 · PEC att -0.32 / def -0.24 · model WIL 1.6–1.7 PEC
- Home field+0.3 goals to WIL
- RecordWIL 0-3-9 · PEC 3-3-6
- Market priorBlended 65% toward PEC +140 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEC | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| WIL | 1 | 0 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 2'
Goal! Willem II 0, PEC Zwolle 1. Sydney van Hooijdonk (PEC Zwolle) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the top right corner.
- GOAL1H 3'
Goal! Willem II 1, PEC Zwolle 1. Hidde ter Avest (Willem II) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom left corner.
Game leaders
Sydney van Hooijdonktotalshots 4
Tijs VelthuisPass 72- Tijs Velthuisdefensiveinterventions 10
Jasper SchendelaarSV 4
- Devin Haentotalshots 3
Maxim DekkerPass 59
Nathan Tjoe-A-Ondefensiveinterventions 13- Maxime DelangheSV 1
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| PEC | WIL | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 8 | 9 |
| Yellow Cards | 0 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 7 | 2 |
| Saves | 4 | 1 |
| Possession | 57.9 | 42.1 |
| SHOTS | 14 | 13 |
| ON GOAL | 2 | 5 |
| On Target % | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 472 | 335 |
| Passes | 554 | 415 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 7 | 5 |
| Crosses | 33 | 15 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 49 | 72 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 32 | 45 |
| Long Balls % | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 3 |
| Effective Tackles | 7 | 10 |
| Tackles | 12 | 10 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 6 |
| Effective Clearances | 16 | 38 |
| Clearances | 16 | 38 |
At lock PEC 1.68–1.64 WIL · 0.2 goals under 3.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
HitS. van Hooijdonk · PEC
ForwardT. Velthuis · PEC
DefenderJ. Schendelaar · PEC
GoalkeeperD. Haen · WIL
ForwardM. Dekker · WIL
DefenderN. Tjoe-A-On · WIL
Defender
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
PEC Zwolle vs Willem II pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 59% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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