Telstar at Fortuna Sittard
FT
2–2
At lock: projected TEL 1.23–1.62 FOR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:44 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2195049329
- Winner: Fortuna (48%)
- Spread: TEL +0.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (54%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
TEL 1.23–1.62 FOR · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): FOR att -0.21 / def -0.07 · TEL att -0.10 / def -0.12 · model FOR 1.7–1.5 TEL
- Home field+0.3 goals to FOR
- RecordFOR 5-5-2 · TEL 2-4-6
- Market priorBlended 65% toward FOR +115 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEL | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| FOR | 2 | 0 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 15'
Goal! Fortuna Sittard 1, Telstar 0. Mohamed Ihattaren (Fortuna Sittard) converts the penalty with a left footed shot to the high centre of the goal.
- OWN GOAL1H 43'
Own Goal by Sem Valk, Telstar. Fortuna Sittard 2, Telstar 0.
- GOAL1H 45'
Goal! Fortuna Sittard 2, Telstar 1. Abdelnour Soualhia (Telstar) header from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Patrick Brouwer following a set piece situation.
- GOAL1H 45'+2'
Goal! Fortuna Sittard 2, Telstar 2. Patrick Brouwer (Telstar) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner.
Game leaders
Abdelnour Soualhiatotalshots 2
Nils RossenPass 64
Sem Valkdefensiveinterventions 11
Ronald KoemanSV 2
Anthony Descottetotalshots 3
Justin HubnerPass 55- Justin Hubnerdefensiveinterventions 11
Mattijs BranderhorstSV 6
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TEL | FOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 14 | 17 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 3 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks | 4 | 4 |
| Saves | 2 | 6 |
| Possession | 53 | 47 |
| SHOTS | 14 | 10 |
| ON GOAL | 8 | 4 |
| On Target % | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 1 |
| Accurate Passes | 369 | 298 |
| Passes | 437 | 372 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 4 | 3 |
| Crosses | 11 | 20 |
| Cross % | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 36 | 56 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 15 | 26 |
| Long Balls % | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 2 | 1 |
| Effective Tackles | 14 | 11 |
| Tackles | 18 | 14 |
| Tackle % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 10 |
| Effective Clearances | 21 | 21 |
| Clearances | 21 | 21 |
At lock TEL 1.23–1.62 FOR · 0.4 goals over 2.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
HitA. Soualhia · TEL
DefenderN. Rossen · TEL
MidfielderS. Valk · TEL
DefenderR. Koeman · TEL
GoalkeeperA. Descotte · FOR
ForwardJ. Hubner · FOR
Defender
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Telstar vs Fortuna pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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