Go Ahead Eagles at Excelsior
FT
1–0
At lock: projected GAE 1.62–1.39 EXC
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:44 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2178271710
- Winner: Go Ahead Eagles (47%)
- Spread: EXC +0.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (57%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
GAE 1.62–1.39 EXC · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): EXC att -0.26 / def -0.26 · GAE att -0.03 / def -0.15 · model EXC 1.7–2.0 GAE
- Home field+0.3 goals to EXC
- RecordEXC 3-2-7 · GAE 4-5-3
- Market priorBlended 65% toward EXC +145 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GAE | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| EXC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 72'
Goal! Excelsior 0, Go Ahead Eagles 1. Søren Tengstedt (Go Ahead Eagles) right footed shot from the right side of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Mathis Suray.
Game leaders
- Tomas Galveztotalshots 1
Joris KramerPass 81- Joris Kramerdefensiveinterventions 14
Jasper CillessenSV 2
- Irakli Yegoiantotalshots 2
- Jan PlugPass 75
Casper Widelldefensiveinterventions 19
Stijn van GasselSV 1
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| GAE | EXC | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 7 | 6 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 0 | 7 |
| Saves | 2 | 1 |
| Possession | 51.3 | 48.7 |
| SHOTS | 6 | 14 |
| ON GOAL | 2 | 2 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 396 | 355 |
| Passes | 491 | 451 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 2 | 7 |
| Crosses | 15 | 30 |
| Cross % | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 66 | 88 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 26 | 38 |
| Long Balls % | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Blocked Shots | 2 | 5 |
| Effective Tackles | 5 | 13 |
| Tackles | 11 | 20 |
| Tackle % | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 9 |
| Effective Clearances | 44 | 23 |
| Clearances | 44 | 23 |
At lock GAE 1.62–1.39 EXC · 0.5 goals under 3.5 · 61% is the confidence saved at lock
HitT. Galvez · GAE
DefenderJ. Kramer · GAE
DefenderJ. Cillessen · GAE
GoalkeeperI. Yegoian · EXC
MidfielderJ. Plug · EXC
DefenderC. Widell · EXC
Defender
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Go Ahead Eagles vs Excelsior pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 61% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Eredivisie picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day