EredivisieFinalKooi Stadium

PSV Eindhoven at SC Cambuur

FT · ESPN+

5–2

PSVCambuur

Final

PSV Eindhoven

8-2-2

Form WLWDW · 40 PF · 15 PA

Final

SC Cambuur

4-3-5

Form LWWWD · 25 PF · 27 PA

PSV 61%Draw 19%CAM 20%

At lock: projected PSV 2.44–1.32 CAM

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:07 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2228604567

Winner called · off by 4

Most typical sim

PSV 2 – CAM 1

Final

PSV 5 – CAM 2

Winner: PSV (62%)
Spread: CAM +1.5 covers (59%)
Total: Over 3.5 (51%)
Score error (both teams)4

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

PSV 2.44–1.32 CAM · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CAM att -0.26 / def -0.30 · PSV att +0.62 / def +0.20 · model CAM 1.2–3.9 PSV
Home field
+0.3 goals to CAM
Record
CAM 4-3-5 · PSV 8-2-2
Market prior
Blended 79% toward PSV -250 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
PSV	3	2	5
CAM	1	1	2

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 1'
Goal! Cambuur 0, PSV Eindhoven 1. Sven Mijnans (PSV Eindhoven) header from very close range to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Esmir Bajraktarevic with a cross.
GOAL1H 15'
Goal! Cambuur 0, PSV Eindhoven 2. Sven Mijnans (PSV Eindhoven) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Ruben van Bommel.Goal confirmed following VAR Review.
GOAL1H 19'
Goal! Cambuur 0, PSV Eindhoven 3. Ruben van Bommel (PSV Eindhoven) right footed shot from the right side of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Esmir Bajraktarevic.
GOAL1H 41'
Goal! Cambuur 1, PSV Eindhoven 3. Nicky Souren (Cambuur) right footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom right corner.
GOAL2H 78'
Goal! Cambuur 2, PSV Eindhoven 3. Iwan Henstra (Cambuur) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Rafik El Arguioui.
GOAL2H 80'
Goal! Cambuur 2, PSV Eindhoven 4. Sven Mijnans (PSV Eindhoven) from a free kick with a left footed shot to the top right corner.
GOAL2H 90'+2'
Goal! Cambuur 2, PSV Eindhoven 5. Ayoni Santos (PSV Eindhoven) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Kodai Sano with a cross following a fast break.

Game leaders

Sven Mijnans
totalshots 4
Lutsharel Geertruida
Pass 56
Lutsharel Geertruida
defensiveinterventions 10
Matej Kovár
SV 1

Ilyes Hamache
totalshots 2
Billy Van Duijl
Pass 37
Ismaël Baouf
defensiveinterventions 15
Thijs Jansen
SV 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	PSV	CAM
Fouls	19	11
Yellow Cards	2	3
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	1	3
Corner Kicks	1	1
Saves	1	1
Possession	62.7	37.3
SHOTS	16	10
ON GOAL	7	3
On Target %	0.4	0.3
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	435	228
Passes	520	306
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.7
Accurate Crosses	3	3
Crosses	11	11
Cross %	0.3	0.3
Long Balls	68	70
Accurate Long Balls	37	22
Long Balls %	0.5	0.3
Blocked Shots	4	3
Effective Tackles	7	12
Tackles	14	18
Tackle %	0.5	0.7
Interceptions	8	13
Effective Clearances	14	25
Clearances	14	25

Computer pick · Total

Over 3.5

55%

At lock PSV 2.44–1.32 CAM · 0.3 goals over 3.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop D. Man anytime goal · PSV
D. Man anytime goal
S. Mijnans · PSV
Midfielder
L. Geertruida · PSV
Defender
M. Kovár · PSV
Goalkeeper
I. Hamache · CAM
Forward
B. Van Duijl · CAM
Defender

Data-Driven Pick · D. Man anytime goal

+200Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

PSV vs Cambuur pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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