EredivisieFinalADO Den Haag Stadium

Sparta Rotterdam at ADO Den Haag

1–3

SpartaADO Den Haag

Final

Sparta Rotterdam

3-3-6

Form LWLLW · 21 PF · 29 PA

Final

ADO Den Haag

2-3-7

Form WLLLW · 16 PF · 25 PA

SPA 29%Draw 24%ADO 48%

At lock: projected SPA 1.29–1.74 ADO

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:44 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2211826948

Called it

Most typical sim

SPA 1 – ADO 2

Final

SPA 1 – ADO 3

Winner: ADO Den Haag (48%)
Spread: SPA +0.5 covers (52%)
Total: Over 2.5 (58%)
Score error (both teams)1

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

SPA 1.29–1.74 ADO · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ADO att -0.16 / def -0.15 · SPA att -0.22 / def -0.19 · model ADO 1.9–1.5 SPA
Home field
+0.3 goals to ADO
Record
ADO 2-3-7 · SPA 3-3-6
Market prior
Blended 79% toward SPA +145 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
SPA	0	1	1
ADO	1	2	3

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 22'
Goal! ADO Den Haag 1, Sparta Rotterdam 0. Juho Kilo (ADO Den Haag) header from very close range to the top left corner. Assisted by Jalen Hawkins following a corner.
GOAL2H 50'
Goal! ADO Den Haag 1, Sparta Rotterdam 1. Bas Kuipers (Sparta Rotterdam) left footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Milan Zonneveld.
GOAL2H 57'
Goal! ADO Den Haag 2, Sparta Rotterdam 1. Nigel Thomas (ADO Den Haag) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner.
GOAL2H 79'
Goal! ADO Den Haag 3, Sparta Rotterdam 1. Daryl van Mieghem (ADO Den Haag) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Cameron Peupion with a cross.

Game leaders

Teo Quintero
totalshots 4
Marvin Young
Pass 56
Marvin Young
defensiveinterventions 10
Michael Brouwer
SV 3

Daryl van Mieghem
totalshots 4
Juho Kilo
Pass 48
Lasse Wilhelm
defensiveinterventions 14
Kilian Nikiema
SV 6

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SPA	ADO
Fouls	9	13
Yellow Cards	0	1
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	0	3
Corner Kicks	9	5
Saves	4	6
Possession	50.8	49.2
SHOTS	16	13
ON GOAL	6	7
On Target %	0.4	0.5
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	337	337
Passes	427	421
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.8
Accurate Crosses	6	5
Crosses	27	20
Cross %	0.2	0.3
Long Balls	63	76
Accurate Long Balls	23	34
Long Balls %	0.4	0.4
Blocked Shots	2	2
Effective Tackles	7	7
Tackles	11	12
Tackle %	0.6	0.6
Interceptions	5	11
Effective Clearances	23	33
Clearances	23	33

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

60%

At lock SPA 1.29–1.74 ADO · 0.5 goals over 2.5 · 60% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop Y. Eduardo anytime goal · ADO
Y. Eduardo anytime goal
T. Quintero · SPA
Defender
M. Young · SPA
Defender
M. Brouwer · SPA
Goalkeeper
D. van Mieghem · ADO
Forward
J. Kilo · ADO
Midfielder

Data-Driven Pick · Y. Eduardo anytime goal

+160Push

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Sparta vs ADO Den Haag pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 60% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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