Feyenoord Rotterdam at Heerenveen
FT · ESPN+
3–5
At lock: projected FEY 1.84–1.62 HEE
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:07 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2262159805
- Winner: Feyenoord (43%)
- Spread: HEE +0.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)4
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
FEY 1.84–1.62 HEE · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): HEE att +0.03 / def +0.05 · FEY att +0.33 / def +0.22 · model HEE 1.6–2.1 FEY
- Home field+0.3 goals to HEE
- RecordHEE 6-3-3 · FEY 7-4-1
- Market priorBlended 65% toward FEY -145 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FEY | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| HEE | 1 | 4 | 5 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 25'
Goal! Heerenveen 0, Feyenoord 1. Anis Hadj Moussa (Feyenoord) left footed shot from the right side of the box to the top left corner. Assisted by Nacho Ferri.
- GOAL1H 31'
Goal! Heerenveen 0, Feyenoord 2. Nacho Ferri (Feyenoord) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom left corner.
- GOAL1H 45'+3'
Goal! Heerenveen 1, Feyenoord 2. Maas Willemsen (Heerenveen) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal following a corner.
- GOAL2H 47'
Goal! Heerenveen 2, Feyenoord 2. Levi Smans (Heerenveen) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Marcus Linday.
- GOAL2H 61'
Goal! Heerenveen 3, Feyenoord 2. Ringo Meerveld (Heerenveen) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner.
- GOAL2H 69'
Goal! Heerenveen 3, Feyenoord 3. Sem Steijn (Feyenoord) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Nacho Ferri with a headed pass.
- GOAL2H 84'
Goal! Heerenveen 4, Feyenoord 3. Ringo Meerveld (Heerenveen) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Jacob Trenskow.
- GOAL2H 90'+3'
Goal! Heerenveen 5, Feyenoord 3. Ringo Meerveld (Heerenveen) left footed shot from the left side of the six yard box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Luca Oyen.
Game leaders
Gjivai Zechiëltotalshots 2
Mika MármolPass 55- Mika Mármoldefensiveinterventions 12
Tjark ErnstSV 5
Ringo Meerveldtotalshots 4
Maas WillemsenPass 60- Maas Willemsendefensiveinterventions 12
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| FEY | HEE | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 8 | 9 |
| Yellow Cards | 0 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 1 | 4 |
| Saves | 5 | 0 |
| Possession | 50.5 | 49.5 |
| SHOTS | 9 | 18 |
| ON GOAL | 3 | 9 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 1 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 429 | 414 |
| Passes | 507 | 489 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 1 | 4 |
| Crosses | 12 | 21 |
| Cross % | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 44 | 47 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 23 | 27 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Blocked Shots | 1 | 4 |
| Effective Tackles | 6 | 11 |
| Tackles | 15 | 14 |
| Tackle % | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 13 |
| Effective Clearances | 28 | 19 |
| Clearances | 28 | 19 |
At lock FEY 1.84–1.62 HEE · 0.04 goals under 3.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp A. Hadj Moussa anytime goal · FEY
A. Hadj Moussa anytime goalG. Zechiël · FEY
MidfielderM. Mármol · FEY
DefenderT. Ernst · FEY
GoalkeeperR. Meerveld · HEE
MidfielderM. Willemsen · HEE
Defender
Data-Driven Pick · A. Hadj Moussa anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Feyenoord vs Heerenveen pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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