Ajax Amsterdam at FC Twente
FT · ESPN+
2–2
At lock: projected AJA 1.45–1.87 TWE
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:07 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2245382186
- Winner: FC Twente (47%)
- Spread: AJA +0.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
AJA 1.45–1.87 TWE · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): TWE att +0.21 / def +0.27 · AJA att +0.21 / def +0.26 · model TWE 1.8–1.5 AJA
- Home field+0.3 goals to TWE
- RecordTWE 7-3-2 · AJA 7-4-1
- Market priorBlended 65% toward TWE -130 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| AJA | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| TWE | 0 | 2 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 3'
Goal! Twente 0, Ajax 1. Tolu Arokodare (Ajax) header from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Oscar Gloukh with a cross.
- GOAL2H 66'
Goal! Twente 0, Ajax 2. Rayane Bounida (Ajax) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Oscar Gloukh.
- OWN GOAL2H 68'
Own Goal by Dies Janse, Ajax. Twente 1, Ajax 2.
- GOAL2H 90'+5'
Goal! Twente 2, Ajax 2. Wout Weghorst (Twente) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom right corner.
Game leaders
Jorthy Mokiototalshots 1
Dies JansePass 54
Lucas Rosadefensiveinterventions 17- Marc-André ter StegenSV 4
Daan Rotstotalshots 5
Robin PröpperPass 76- Robin Pröpperdefensiveinterventions 10
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| AJA | TWE | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 11 | 10 |
| Yellow Cards | 5 | 3 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks | 2 | 9 |
| Saves | 4 | 0 |
| Possession | 44.4 | 55.6 |
| SHOTS | 6 | 22 |
| ON GOAL | 2 | 5 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 1 |
| Accurate Passes | 355 | 432 |
| Passes | 419 | 507 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 3 | 8 |
| Crosses | 8 | 32 |
| Cross % | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 44 | 54 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 22 | 36 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Blocked Shots | 2 | 6 |
| Effective Tackles | 7 | 15 |
| Tackles | 14 | 20 |
| Tackle % | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Interceptions | 12 | 10 |
| Effective Clearances | 40 | 11 |
| Clearances | 40 | 11 |
At lock AJA 1.45–1.87 TWE · 0.2 goals under 3.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp L. Vennegoor Of Hesselink anytime goal · TWE
L. Vennegoor Of Hesselink anytime goalJ. Mokio · AJA
MidfielderD. Janse · AJA
DefenderL. Rosa · AJA
DefenderM. ter Stegen · AJA
GoalkeeperD. Rots · TWE
Forward
Data-Driven Pick · L. Vennegoor Of Hesselink anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Ajax vs FC Twente pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 56% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Eredivisie picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day