EredivisieFinalStadion Galgenwaard

NEC Nijmegen at FC Utrecht

3–2

NECFC Utrecht

Final

NEC Nijmegen

3-5-4

Form WWLDW · 20 PF · 21 PA

Final

FC Utrecht

3-3-6

Form LLWDW · 21 PF · 34 PA

NEC 29%Draw 23%UTR 48%

At lock: projected NEC 1.35–1.79 UTR

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:07 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1926754520

Missed · off by 2

Most typical sim

NEC 1 – UTR 2

Final

NEC 3 – UTR 2

Winner: FC Utrecht (49%)
Spread: NEC +0.5 covers (51%)
Total: Under 3.5 (61%)
Score error (both teams)2

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

NEC 1.35–1.79 UTR · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): UTR att +0.00 / def -0.10 · NEC att +0.07 / def -0.02 · model UTR 1.9–1.9 NEC
Home field
+0.3 goals to UTR
Record
UTR 3-3-6 · NEC 3-5-4
Market prior
Blended 65% toward NEC +135 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
NEC	2	1	3
UTR	0	2	2

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 34'
Goal! Utrecht 0, NEC 1. Kevin Kers (NEC) header from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Mitchel Bakker with a cross.
GOAL1H 38'
Goal! Utrecht 0, NEC 2. Dusan Tadic (NEC) left footed shot from outside the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Deveron Fonville.
GOAL2H 56'
Goal! Utrecht 1, NEC 2. Yoann Cathline (Utrecht) right footed shot from the left side of the six yard box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Ángel Alarcón following a fast break.
GOAL2H 58'
Goal! Utrecht 1, NEC 3. Dusan Tadic (NEC) left footed shot from the left side of the six yard box to the high centre of the goal.
GOAL2H 64'
Goal! Utrecht 2, NEC 3. Dani de Wit (Utrecht) header from the centre of the box to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Nordin Amrabat with a cross.

Game leaders

Noé Lebreton
totalshots 2
Ahmetcan Kaplan
Pass 35
Darko Nejasmic
defensiveinterventions 12
Gonzalo Crettaz
SV 3

Yoann Cathline
totalshots 4
Nikolas Panagiotou
Pass 46
Matisse Didden
defensiveinterventions 14
Vasilios Barkas
SV 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NEC	UTR
Fouls	11	17
Yellow Cards	3	2
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	1	1
Corner Kicks	8	3
Saves	3	4
Possession	50.5	49.5
SHOTS	16	16
ON GOAL	7	5
On Target %	0.4	0.3
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	295	294
Passes	401	402
Pass Completion %	0.7	0.7
Accurate Crosses	8	5
Crosses	24	14
Cross %	0.3	0.4
Long Balls	76	63
Accurate Long Balls	23	23
Long Balls %	0.3	0.4
Blocked Shots	2	4
Effective Tackles	8	9
Tackles	13	12
Tackle %	0.6	0.8
Interceptions	14	9
Effective Clearances	28	23
Clearances	28	23

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

58%

At lock NEC 1.35–1.79 UTR · 0.4 goals under 3.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

N. Lebreton · NEC
Midfielder
A. Kaplan · NEC
Defender
D. Nejasmic · NEC
Midfielder
G. Crettaz · NEC
Goalkeeper
Y. Cathline · UTR
Forward
N. Panagiotou · UTR
Defender

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

NEC vs FC Utrecht pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 58% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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