EredivisieFinalAFAS Stadion

FC Groningen at AZ Alkmaar

FT · ESPN+

3–4

FC GroningenAZ Alkmaar

Final

FC Groningen

4-3-5

Form LLLDL · 29 PF · 28 PA

Final

AZ Alkmaar

7-2-3

Form WLLLW · 24 PF · 16 PA

GRO 16%Draw 19%AZ 65%

At lock: projected GRO 1.05–2.30 AZ

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:07 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1943532139

Winner called · off by 4

Most typical sim

GRO 1 – AZ 2

Final

GRO 3 – AZ 4

Winner: AZ Alkmaar (66%)
Spread: GRO +1.5 covers (57%)
Total: Under 3.5 (57%)
Score error (both teams)4

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

GRO 1.05–2.30 AZ · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): AZ att +0.05 / def +0.13 · GRO att -0.02 / def -0.10 · model AZ 2.2–1.4 GRO
Home field
+0.3 goals to AZ
Record
AZ 7-2-3 · GRO 4-3-5
Market prior
Blended 65% toward AZ -205 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
GRO	1	2	3
AZ	1	3	4

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 2'
Goal! AZ 0, Groningen 1. Jacob Ondrejka (Groningen) header from very close range to the bottom left corner.
GOAL1H 9'
Goal! AZ 1, Groningen 1. Mexx Meerdink (AZ) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Ro-Zangelo Daal.
GOAL2H 47'
Goal! AZ 1, Groningen 2. Brynjólfur Willumsson (Groningen) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Jacob Ondrejka.
GOAL2H 54'
Goal! AZ 1, Groningen 3. Thom van Bergen (Groningen) right footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal.
GOAL2H 61'
Goal! AZ 2, Groningen 3. Ayoub Oufkir (AZ) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Mexx Meerdink.
GOAL2H 76'
Goal! AZ 3, Groningen 3. Mateo Chávez (AZ) left footed shot from the right side of the six yard box to the bottom right corner.
GOAL2H 90'+1'
Goal! AZ 4, Groningen 3. Mexx Meerdink (AZ) converts the penalty with a left footed shot to the top right corner.

Game leaders

Thom Van Bergen
totalshots 4
Thijmen Blokzijl
Pass 43
Thijmen Blokzijl
defensiveinterventions 14
Etienne Vaessen
SV 1

Ayoub Oufkir
totalshots 5
Wesley Hoedt
Pass 69
Wesley Hoedt
defensiveinterventions 13
Jari De Busser
SV 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	GRO	AZ
Fouls	13	11
Yellow Cards	2	1
Red Cards	2	0
Offsides	1	2
Corner Kicks	0	7
Saves	1	2
Possession	41.8	58.2
SHOTS	9	19
ON GOAL	5	5
On Target %	0.6	0.3
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	2
Accurate Passes	256	402
Passes	354	487
Pass Completion %	0.7	0.8
Accurate Crosses	1	3
Crosses	5	15
Cross %	0.2	0.2
Long Balls	73	68
Accurate Long Balls	23	30
Long Balls %	0.3	0.4
Blocked Shots	0	3
Effective Tackles	7	7
Tackles	10	11
Tackle %	0.7	0.6
Interceptions	10	13
Effective Clearances	34	26
Clearances	34	26

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

54%

At lock GRO 1.05–2.30 AZ · 0.2 goals under 3.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock

Miss

Players

Prop M. Meerdink anytime goal · AZ
M. Meerdink anytime goal
T. Van Bergen · GRO
Forward
T. Blokzijl · GRO
Defender
E. Vaessen · GRO
Goalkeeper
A. Oufkir · AZ
Forward
W. Hoedt · AZ
Defender

Data-Driven Pick · M. Meerdink anytime goal

+100Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

FC Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 54% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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