Leeds United at AFC Bournemouth
At lock LEE 1.10–1.64 BOU · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 50% is the confidence saved at lock
D. Calvert-Lewin · LEE
ForwardM. Tavernier · BOU
Midfielder
At lock: projected LEE 1.10–1.64 BOU · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2
Model vs market
Gap: +1 pts of win %, +0.24 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2023 vs old model 0.2081 vs closing line 0.1952. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
LEE 1.10–1.64 BOU · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): BOU att +0.01 / def +0.00 · LEE att -0.18 / def -0.04 · model BOU 1.6–1.1 LEE
- Home field+0.3 goals to BOU
- RecordBOU 2-3-3 · LEE 2-5-1
Season leaders
- Dominic Calvert-Lewingoals 3
- Dominic Calvert-Lewingoalsleaders 3
- Marcus Taverniergoals 5
- Marcus Taverniergoalsleaders 5
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LEE | BOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | 3 | -1 |
| Total Goals | 9 | 12 |
| Assists | 6 | 7 |
| Goals Against | 6 | 13 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Leeds vs Bournemouth prediction · Oct 31, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 50% model probability. The model projected Leeds 1.1, Bournemouth 1.6 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Bournemouth 49%, Leeds 24%, draw 27%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: EPL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day