Ipswich Town at Hull City
At lock IPS 1.10–1.87 HUL · 0.5 goals over 2.5 · 51% is the confidence saved at lock
L. Davis · IPS
DefenderM. Belloumi · HUL
Forward
At lock: projected IPS 1.10–1.87 HUL · most likely 1–1 · likeliest Over 2.5 score 1–2
Model vs market
Gap: +16 pts of win %, +0.47 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2023 vs old model 0.2081 vs closing line 0.1952. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
IPS 1.10–1.87 HUL · Low confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): HUL att -0.16 / def -0.08 · IPS att -0.26 / def -0.34 · model HUL 1.9–1.1 IPS
- Home field+0.3 goals to HUL
- RecordHUL 2-4-2 · IPS 3-1-4
Season leaders
- Leif Davisgoals 2
- Leif Davisgoalsleaders 2
- Mohamed Belloumigoals 3
- Mohamed Belloumigoalsleaders 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| IPS | HUL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -4 | 1 |
| Total Goals | 12 | 9 |
| Assists | 8 | 7 |
| Goals Against | 16 | 8 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Ipswich vs Hull prediction · Oct 31, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 51% model probability. The model projected Ipswich 1.1, Hull 1.9 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Hull 54%, Ipswich 21%, draw 25%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: EPL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day