EPLSat 12:30 PM CTTottenham Hotspur Stadium

Crystal Palace at Tottenham Hotspur

Sat 12:30 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

55%

At lock CRY 1.12–1.53 TOT · 0.8 goals under 3.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

T. Mitchell · CRY
Defender
J. van Hecke · TOT
Defender

Crystal Palace

2-1-5

Form DDLLW · 9 PF · 19 PA

1.12

Projected

Tottenham Hotspur

2-3-3

Form WWDLL · 8 PF · 10 PA

1.53

CRY 27%Draw 28%TOT 45%

At lock: projected CRY 1.12–1.53 TOT · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

TOT win

59%

78% (no-vig)

Total

2.65

3.5

Gap: -19 pts of win %, -0.85 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2023 vs old model 0.2081 vs closing line 0.1952. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

CRY 1.12–1.53 TOT · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): TOT att -0.16 / def -0.08 · CRY att -0.23 / def -0.15 · model TOT 1.5–1.1 CRY
Home field
+0.3 goals to TOT
Record
TOT 2-3-3 · CRY 2-1-5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Tyrick Mitchell
goals 2
Tyrick Mitchell
goalsleaders 2

Jan Paul van Hecke
goals 1
Jan Paul van Hecke
goalsleaders 1

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CRY	TOT
Goal Difference	-10	-2
Total Goals	9	8
Assists	6	6
Goals Against	19	10

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

C Palace vs Spurs prediction · Oct 31, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected C Palace 1.1, Spurs 1.5 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Spurs 45%, C Palace 27%, draw 28%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: EPL picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day