BundesligaFinalAllianz Arena

RB Leipzig at Bayern Munich

FT · USA Net

Final

RB Leipzig

3-4 · L1

Form DWWLW · 17 PF · 17 PA

Final

Bayern Munich

5-2-0 · W1

Form DDDWW · 28 PF · 6 PA

RBL 10%Draw 12%MUN 78%

Model: RBL 1.11–3.53 MUN

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 11:03 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1975170584

Winner called · off by 4

Most typical sim

RBL 1 – MUN 2

Final

RBL 1 – MUN 6

Winner: Bayern (46%)
Total: Under 4.5 (79%)
Score error (both teams)4

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

RBL 1.11–3.53 MUN · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): MUN att +0.63 / def +0.28 · RBL att +0.16 / def +0.00 · model MUN 3.6–1.3 RBL
Home field
+0.3 goals to MUN
Record
MUN 5-2-0 · RBL 3-4
Market prior
Blended 68% toward MUN -450 / total 4.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
RBL	0	1	1
MUN	3	3	6

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 12'
Goal! Bayern Munich 1, RB Leipzig 0. Luis Díaz (Bayern Munich) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Joshua Kimmich with a through ball.
GOAL1H 26'
Goal! Bayern Munich 2, RB Leipzig 0. Aleksandar Pavlovic (Bayern Munich) left footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Luis Díaz.
GOAL1H 34'
Goal! Bayern Munich 3, RB Leipzig 0. Michael Olise (Bayern Munich) left footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Harry Kane.
GOAL2H 47'
Goal! Bayern Munich 4, RB Leipzig 0. Luis Díaz (Bayern Munich) right footed shot from the left side of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Harry Kane.
GOAL2H 52'
Goal! Bayern Munich 5, RB Leipzig 0. Harry Kane (Bayern Munich) right footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Nathaniel Brown following a fast break.
GOAL2H 69'
Goal! Bayern Munich 6, RB Leipzig 0. Luis Díaz (Bayern Munich) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Michael Olise following a corner.
GOAL2H 90'+1'
Goal! Bayern Munich 6, RB Leipzig 1. Andrija Maksimovic (RB Leipzig) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Brajan Gruda.

Game leaders

Brajan Gruda
totalshots 3
Castello Lukeba
Pass 63
Castello Lukeba
defensiveinterventions 19
Maarten Vandevoordt
SV 11

Luis Díaz
totalshots 6
Joshua Kimmich
Pass 85
Dayot Upamecano
defensiveinterventions 7
Jonas Urbig
SV 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	RBL	MUN
Fouls	6	15
Yellow Cards	0	1
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	2	4
Corner Kicks	3	11
Saves	11	3
Possession	38.3	61.7
SHOTS	12	29
ON GOAL	4	17
On Target %	0.3	0.6
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	337	601
Passes	412	666
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.9
Accurate Crosses	2	3
Crosses	6	14
Cross %	0.3	0.2
Long Balls	42	51
Accurate Long Balls	12	28
Long Balls %	0.3	0.5
Blocked Shots	5	9
Effective Tackles	15	7
Tackles	19	13
Tackle %	0.8	0.5
Interceptions	13	12
Effective Clearances	25	8
Clearances	25	8

Computer pick · Total

Under 4.5

78%

RBL 1.11–3.53 MUN

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

RB Leipzig vs Bayern pick result · Oct 17, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 4.5, with a 78% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

More: Bundesliga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day