FC Cologne at 1. FC Union Berlin
FT · Fandango
1–1
At lock: projected KOE 1.44–1.18 FCU
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1807100204
- Winner: Cologne (43%)
- Spread: FCU +0.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)0
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
KOE 1.44–1.18 FCU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): FCU att -0.38 / def -0.12 · KOE att -0.27 / def -0.13 · model FCU 1.5–1.3 KOE
- Home field+0.3 goals to FCU
- RecordFCU 1-4-3 · KOE 2-3-3
- Market priorBlended 67% toward KOE +145 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KOE | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| FCU | 1 | 0 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 10'
Goal! Union Berlin 1, FC Cologne 0. Janik Haberer (Union Berlin) right footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Tim Skarke.
- GOAL2H 79'
Goal! Union Berlin 1, FC Cologne 1. Malek El Mala (FC Cologne) left footed shot from very close range to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Alessio Castro-Montes following a corner.
Game leaders
- Said El Malatotalshots 3
- Tom KraussPass 94
- Tom Kraussdefensiveinterventions 20
- Marvin SchwäbeSV 1
- Janik Haberertotalshots 2
- András SchäferPass 40
- Marvin Friedrichdefensiveinterventions 18
- Frederik RonnowSV 1
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| KOE | FCU | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 10 | 11 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 4 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 2 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 6 | 2 |
| Saves | 1 | 1 |
| Possession | 62.8 | 37.2 |
| SHOTS | 14 | 5 |
| ON GOAL | 2 | 2 |
| On Target % | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 568 | 293 |
| Passes | 638 | 382 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 10 | 0 |
| Crosses | 26 | 11 |
| Cross % | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls | 33 | 66 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 20 | 25 |
| Long Balls % | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Blocked Shots | 6 | 0 |
| Effective Tackles | 4 | 18 |
| Tackles | 5 | 21 |
| Tackle % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 10 |
| Effective Clearances | 33 | 24 |
| Clearances | 33 | 24 |
At lock KOE 1.44–1.18 FCU · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp L. Maina · KOE
L. Maina Over 0.5 SOTS. El Mala · KOE
MidfielderT. Krauss · KOE
MidfielderM. Schwäbe · KOE
GoalkeeperJ. Haberer · FCU
MidfielderA. Schäfer · FCU
Midfielder
Data-Driven Pick · L. Maina Over 0.5 SOT
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Cologne vs Union Berlin pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 55% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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