SV Elversberg at Borussia Dortmund
FT · Fandango
1–2
At lock: projected ELV 0.99–2.42 DOR
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1824024918
- Winner: Dortmund (69%)
- Spread: ELV +1.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (56%)
- Score error (both teams)0
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
ELV 0.99–2.42 DOR · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): DOR att +0.07 / def +0.27 · ELV att -0.08 / def -0.11 · model DOR 2.3–1.0 ELV
- Home field+0.3 goals to DOR
- RecordDOR 6-3-0 · ELV 4-1-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward DOR -320 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ELV | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| DOR | 0 | 2 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 55'
Goal! Borussia Dortmund 1, Elversberg 0. Felix Nmecha (Borussia Dortmund) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Fábio Silva.
- GOAL2H 71'
Goal! Borussia Dortmund 2, Elversberg 0. Felix Nmecha (Borussia Dortmund) right footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Maximilian Beier.
- GOAL2H 81'
Goal! Borussia Dortmund 2, Elversberg 1. Noel Futkeu (Elversberg) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Florian Le Joncour following a corner.
Game leaders
- Lukas Petkovtotalshots 5
- Maximilian RohrPass 63
- Maximilian Rohrdefensiveinterventions 14
- Nicolas KristofSV 4
- Felix Nmechatotalshots 6
- Nico SchlotterbeckPass 61
- Waldemar Antondefensiveinterventions 17
- Gregor KobelSV 6
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ELV | DOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 11 | 14 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 3 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 4 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 6 | 6 |
| Saves | 4 | 6 |
| Possession | 48.9 | 51.1 |
| SHOTS | 16 | 19 |
| ON GOAL | 7 | 6 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 349 | 383 |
| Passes | 437 | 453 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 2 | 3 |
| Crosses | 11 | 12 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Long Balls | 51 | 44 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 25 | 21 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 5 | 6 |
| Effective Tackles | 13 | 10 |
| Tackles | 22 | 16 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 16 |
| Effective Clearances | 29 | 32 |
| Clearances | 29 | 32 |
At lock ELV 0.99–2.42 DOR · 0.1 goals under 3.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp S. Guirassy · DOR
S. Guirassy Over 4.5 shotsL. Petkov · ELV
ForwardM. Rohr · ELV
DefenderN. Kristof · ELV
GoalkeeperF. Nmecha · DOR
MidfielderN. Schlotterbeck · DOR
Defender
Data-Driven Pick · S. Guirassy Over 4.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Elversberg vs Dortmund pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 52% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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