BundesligaFinalRed Bull Arena

FC Augsburg at RB Leipzig

FT · Fandango

2–5

AugsburgRB Leipzig

Final

FC Augsburg

2-3-4

Form DLWDL · 20 PF · 20 PA

Final

RB Leipzig

6-0-3

Form WLWWW · 27 PF · 13 PA

FCA 16%Draw 17%RBL 68%

At lock: projected FCA 1.17–2.63 RBL

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1840802537

Called it

Most typical sim

FCA 1 – RBL 3

Final

FCA 2 – RBL 5

Winner: RB Leipzig (68%)
Spread: FCA +1.5 covers (53%)
Total: Over 3.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)3

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

FCA 1.17–2.63 RBL · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): RBL att +0.21 / def +0.03 · FCA att -0.12 / def -0.16 · model RBL 2.8–1.3 FCA
Home field
+0.3 goals to RBL
Record
RBL 6-0-3 · FCA 2-3-4
Market prior
Blended 66% toward RBL -255 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
FCA	1	1	2
RBL	3	2	5

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 1'
Goal! RB Leipzig 0, Augsburg 1. Anton Kade (Augsburg) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner.
GOAL1H 34'
Goal! RB Leipzig 1, Augsburg 1. Ezechiel Banzuzi (RB Leipzig) left footed shot from outside the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Brajan Gruda.
GOAL1H 35'
Goal! RB Leipzig 2, Augsburg 1. Christopher Nkunku (RB Leipzig) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the high centre of the goal. Assisted by Brajan Gruda.
GOAL1H 45'+1'
Goal! RB Leipzig 3, Augsburg 1. David Raum (RB Leipzig) from a free kick with a left footed shot to the top right corner.
GOAL2H 60'
Goal! RB Leipzig 4, Augsburg 1. Rômulo (RB Leipzig) left footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Christopher Nkunku.
GOAL2H 66'
Goal! RB Leipzig 5, Augsburg 1. Christoph Baumgartner (RB Leipzig) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner. Assisted by Antonio Nusa.
GOAL2H 90'+2'
Goal! RB Leipzig 5, Augsburg 2. Uchenna Ogundu (Augsburg) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Fabian Rieder with a through ball following a fast break.

Game leaders

Anton Kade
totalshots 6
Chrislain Matsima
Pass 41
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw
defensiveinterventions 14
Finn Dahmen
SV 2

Tidiam Gomis
totalshots 3
Neil El Aynaoui
Pass 99
David Raum
defensiveinterventions 16
Maarten Vandevoordt
SV 6

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	FCA	RBL
Fouls	7	6
Yellow Cards	2	1
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	4	3
Corner Kicks	2	2
Saves	2	6
Possession	35.1	64.9
SHOTS	13	17
ON GOAL	8	7
On Target %	0.6	0.4
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	328	680
Passes	403	756
Pass Completion %	0.8	0.9
Accurate Crosses	2	2
Crosses	12	9
Cross %	0.2	0.2
Long Balls	32	39
Accurate Long Balls	17	24
Long Balls %	0.5	0.6
Blocked Shots	1	4
Effective Tackles	18	6
Tackles	27	11
Tackle %	0.7	0.5
Interceptions	15	12
Effective Clearances	18	8
Clearances	18	8

Computer pick · Total

Over 3.5

56%

At lock FCA 1.17–2.63 RBL · 0.3 goals over 3.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop F. Dahmen · FCA
F. Dahmen Over 4.5 saves
A. Kade · FCA
Midfielder
C. Matsima · FCA
Defender
J. Gouweleeuw · FCA
Defender
T. Gomis · RBL
Forward
N. El Aynaoui · RBL
Midfielder

Data-Driven Pick · F. Dahmen Over 4.5 saves

-110Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Augsburg vs RB Leipzig pick result · Nov 7, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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