Werder Bremen at VfB Stuttgart
FT · USA Net
0–1
At lock: projected SVW 1.45–2.18 VFB
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1857580156
- Winner: Stuttgart (54%)
- Spread: VFB -0.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SVW 1.45–2.18 VFB · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): VFB att +0.14 / def +0.01 · SVW att -0.17 / def -0.07 · model VFB 2.4–1.3 SVW
- Home field+0.3 goals to VFB
- RecordVFB 4-0-5 · SVW 4-3-2
- Market priorBlended 66% toward VFB -125 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SVW | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VFB | 1 | 0 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 7'
Goal! Stuttgart 1, Werder Bremen 0. Maximilian Mittelstädt (Stuttgart) left footed shot from the left side of the box to the top left corner. Assisted by Grischa Prömel.
Game leaders
- Youri Regeertotalshots 5
- Marco FriedlPass 79
- Amos Pieperdefensiveinterventions 15
- Karl HeinSV 4
- Maximilian Mittelstädttotalshots 3
- Maximilian MittelstädtPass 42
- Jeff Chabotdefensiveinterventions 17
- Dennis SeimenSV 5
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SVW | VFB | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 8 | 6 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 0 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 4 | 4 |
| Saves | 4 | 5 |
| Possession | 57.6 | 42.4 |
| SHOTS | 24 | 13 |
| ON GOAL | 5 | 5 |
| On Target % | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 505 | 362 |
| Passes | 602 | 450 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 4 | 5 |
| Crosses | 24 | 12 |
| Cross % | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Long Balls | 63 | 43 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 39 | 14 |
| Long Balls % | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Blocked Shots | 8 | 3 |
| Effective Tackles | 10 | 8 |
| Tackles | 15 | 14 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Interceptions | 11 | 11 |
| Effective Clearances | 18 | 47 |
| Clearances | 18 | 47 |
At lock SVW 1.45–2.18 VFB · 0.1 goals over 3.5 · 52% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp N. Nartey · VFB
N. Nartey Over 2.5 shotsY. Regeer · SVW
MidfielderM. Friedl · SVW
DefenderA. Pieper · SVW
DefenderK. Hein · SVW
GoalkeeperM. Mittelstädt · VFB
Defender
Data-Driven Pick · N. Nartey Over 2.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Bremen vs Stuttgart pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 52% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Bundesliga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day