Schalke 04 at TSG Hoffenheim
FT · Fandango
1–2
At lock: projected S04 1.33–1.78 TSG
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1874357775
- Winner: Hoffenheim (48%)
- Spread: S04 +0.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (62%)
- Score error (both teams)0
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
S04 1.33–1.78 TSG · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): TSG att -0.01 / def -0.11 · S04 att -0.40 / def -0.17 · model TSG 2.2–1.1 S04
- Home field+0.3 goals to TSG
- RecordTSG 4-0-5 · S04 1-3-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward TSG -200 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S04 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TSG | 2 | 0 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 10'
Goal! Hoffenheim 1, Schalke 04 0. Fisnik Asllani (Hoffenheim) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom left corner.
- GOAL1H 26'
Goal! Hoffenheim 2, Schalke 04 0. Tim Lemperle (Hoffenheim) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Fisnik Asllani.
- GOAL2H 81'
Goal! Hoffenheim 2, Schalke 04 1. Junior Adamu (Schalke 04) right footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal following a corner.
Game leaders
- Adil Aouchichetotalshots 7
- Hasan KurucayPass 62
- Hasan Kurucaydefensiveinterventions 10
- Loris KariusSV 3
- Alexander Prasstotalshots 4
- Leon AvdullahuPass 52
- Koki Machidadefensiveinterventions 21
- Oliver BaumannSV 4
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| S04 | TSG | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 9 | 10 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 0 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 2 | 6 |
| Corner Kicks | 4 | 6 |
| Saves | 5 | 4 |
| Possession | 51.2 | 48.8 |
| SHOTS | 23 | 15 |
| ON GOAL | 6 | 7 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 348 | 367 |
| Passes | 466 | 456 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 6 | 3 |
| Crosses | 21 | 15 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 53 | 67 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 17 | 35 |
| Long Balls % | 0.3 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 10 | 2 |
| Effective Tackles | 8 | 11 |
| Tackles | 14 | 17 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Interceptions | 14 | 13 |
| Effective Clearances | 24 | 45 |
| Clearances | 24 | 45 |
At lock S04 1.33–1.78 TSG · 0.4 goals under 3.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp F. Asllani · TSG
F. Asllani Over 3.5 shotsA. Aouchiche · S04
MidfielderH. Kurucay · S04
DefenderL. Karius · S04
GoalkeeperA. Prass · TSG
DefenderL. Avdullahu · TSG
Midfielder
Data-Driven Pick · F. Asllani Over 3.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Schalke vs Hoffenheim pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 59% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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