1. FC Union Berlin at SC Freiburg
FT · Fandango
0–2
At lock: projected FCU 0.79–2.05 SCF
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1891135394
- Winner: Freiburg (66%)
- Spread: FCU +1.5 covers (58%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
FCU 0.79–2.05 SCF · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): SCF att -0.09 / def +0.03 · FCU att -0.38 / def -0.12 · model SCF 2.0–1.0 FCU
- Home field+0.3 goals to SCF
- RecordSCF 6-1-2 · FCU 1-4-4
- Market priorBlended 66% toward SCF -225 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FCU | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SCF | 0 | 2 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- OWN GOAL2H 55'
Own Goal by Rani Khedira, Union Berlin. Freiburg 1, Union Berlin 0.
- GOAL2H 67'
Goal! Freiburg 2, Union Berlin 0. Yuito Suzuki (Freiburg) right footed shot from the right side of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Derry Scherhant with a through ball following a fast break.
Game leaders
- Zeno Van Den Boschtotalshots 1
- Marvin FriedrichPass 46
- Marvin Friedrichdefensiveinterventions 12
- Frederik RonnowSV 8
- Derry Scherhanttotalshots 5
- Matthias GinterPass 74
- Matthias Ginterdefensiveinterventions 13
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| FCU | SCF | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 17 | 10 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 3 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 1 | 5 |
| Saves | 8 | 0 |
| Possession | 40.8 | 59.2 |
| SHOTS | 4 | 20 |
| ON GOAL | 0 | 9 |
| On Target % | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 1 |
| Accurate Passes | 276 | 465 |
| Passes | 370 | 536 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 3 | 5 |
| Crosses | 10 | 24 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 61 | 45 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 26 | 18 |
| Long Balls % | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Blocked Shots | 2 | 5 |
| Effective Tackles | 11 | 5 |
| Tackles | 15 | 6 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 9 |
| Effective Clearances | 30 | 30 |
| Clearances | 30 | 30 |
At lock FCU 0.79–2.05 SCF · 0.3 goals over 2.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp K. Goto · SCF
K. Goto Over 3.5 shotsZ. Van Den Bosch · FCU
DefenderM. Friedrich · FCU
DefenderF. Ronnow · FCU
GoalkeeperD. Scherhant · SCF
ForwardM. Ginter · SCF
Defender
Data-Driven Pick · K. Goto Over 3.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Union Berlin vs Freiburg pick result · Nov 8, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 58% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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