Bayern Munich at Mainz
FT · Fandango
2–1
At lock: projected MUN 2.77–1.21 M05
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1907913013
- Winner: Bayern (69%)
- Spread: M05 +1.5 covers (51%)
- Total: Over 3.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
MUN 2.77–1.21 M05 · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): M05 att -0.11 / def -0.06 · MUN att +0.60 / def +0.28 · model M05 1.3–2.9 MUN
- Home field+0.3 goals to M05
- RecordM05 3-1-5 · MUN 6-3-0
- Market priorBlended 66% toward MUN -425 / total 4.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MUN | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| M05 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 14'
Goal! Mainz 0, Bayern Munich 1. Joshua Kimmich (Bayern Munich) right footed shot from outside the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Harry Kane.
- GOAL2H 57'
Goal! Mainz 0, Bayern Munich 2. Lennart Karl (Bayern Munich) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Harry Kane.
- GOAL2H 90'+2'
Goal! Mainz 1, Bayern Munich 2. Phillip Tietz (Mainz) header from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Benedict Hollerbach with a cross.
Game leaders
- Harry Kanetotalshots 6
- Aleksandar PavlovicPass 116
- Dayot Upamecanodefensiveinterventions 22
- Nadiem Amiritotalshots 3
- Nadiem AmiriPass 33
- Fabio Gruberdefensiveinterventions 12
- Robin ZentnerSV 6
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MUN | M05 | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 8 | 8 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 0 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks | 8 | 7 |
| Saves | 0 | 6 |
| Possession | 68.8 | 31.2 |
| SHOTS | 26 | 11 |
| ON GOAL | 9 | 1 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 651 | 233 |
| Passes | 716 | 318 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Accurate Crosses | 7 | 8 |
| Crosses | 20 | 17 |
| Cross % | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Long Balls | 37 | 65 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 24 | 26 |
| Long Balls % | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Blocked Shots | 7 | 3 |
| Effective Tackles | 16 | 24 |
| Tackles | 28 | 32 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 9 |
| Effective Clearances | 35 | 24 |
| Clearances | 35 | 24 |
At lock MUN 2.77–1.21 M05 · 0.5 goals over 3.5 · 57% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp H. Kane · MUN
H. Kane Over 4.5 shotsA. Pavlovic · MUN
MidfielderD. Upamecano · MUN
DefenderN. Amiri · M05
MidfielderF. Gruber · M05
DefenderR. Zentner · M05
Goalkeeper
Data-Driven Pick · H. Kane Over 4.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Bayern vs Mainz pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 57% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Bundesliga picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day