BundesligaFinalRheinEnergieStadion

Bayer Leverkusen at FC Cologne

FT · Fandango

2–1

LeverkusenCologne

Final

Bayer Leverkusen

5-1-3

Form WLLWL · 20 PF · 17 PA

Final

FC Cologne

2-3-4

Form LDWDL · 10 PF · 14 PA

B04 43%Draw 23%KOE 34%

At lock: projected B04 1.77–1.54 KOE

How close was our sim?

The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.

Pre-game sim locked Nov 7, 11:00 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4155569506

Called it

Most typical sim

B04 2 – KOE 2

Final

B04 2 – KOE 1

Winner: Leverkusen (43%)
Spread: KOE +0.5 covers (57%)
Total: Under 3.5 (57%)
Score error (both teams)1

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

The model

How this number was built

B04 1.77–1.54 KOE · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): KOE att -0.27 / def -0.13 · B04 att +0.15 / def +0.02 · model KOE 1.4–2.0 B04
Home field
+0.3 goals to KOE
Record
KOE 2-3-4 · B04 5-1-3
Market prior
Blended 66% toward B04 -170 / total 3.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	1H	2H	T
B04	1	1	2
KOE	0	1	1

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 7'
Goal! FC Cologne 0, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1. Aleix García (Bayer 04 Leverkusen) from a free kick with a right footed shot to the top left corner.
GOAL2H 85'
Goal! FC Cologne 0, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2. Patrik Schick (Bayer 04 Leverkusen) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the top left corner. Assisted by Ibrahim Maza with a through ball.
GOAL2H 90'+2'
Goal! FC Cologne 1, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2. Saïd El Mala (FC Cologne) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Malek El Mala with a cross.

Game leaders

Patrik Schick
totalshots 4
Aleix García
Pass 103
Jarell Quansah
defensiveinterventions 14
Mark Flekken
SV 5

Said El Mala
totalshots 3
Tom Krauss
Pass 53
Borna Sosa
defensiveinterventions 12
Marvin Schwäbe
SV 6

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	B04	KOE
Fouls	12	12
Yellow Cards	5	6
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	0	1
Corner Kicks	6	2
Saves	5	6
Possession	61.7	38.3
SHOTS	14	12
ON GOAL	8	6
On Target %	0.6	0.5
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	575	342
Passes	639	393
Pass Completion %	0.9	0.9
Accurate Crosses	5	4
Crosses	16	18
Cross %	0.3	0.2
Long Balls	49	30
Accurate Long Balls	26	15
Long Balls %	0.5	0.5
Blocked Shots	1	2
Effective Tackles	14	14
Tackles	19	23
Tackle %	0.7	0.6
Interceptions	8	10
Effective Clearances	20	20
Clearances	20	20

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

55%

At lock B04 1.77–1.54 KOE · 0.2 goals under 3.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Hit

Players

Prop N. Tella · B04
N. Tella Over 2.5 shots
P. Schick · B04
Forward
A. García · B04
Midfielder
J. Quansah · B04
Defender
M. Flekken · B04
Goalkeeper
S. El Mala · KOE
Midfielder

Data-Driven Pick · N. Tella Over 2.5 shots

-115Push

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Leverkusen vs Cologne pick result · Nov 8, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 55% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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