Eintracht Frankfurt at SC Paderborn 07
FT · Fandango
2–2
At lock: projected SGE 1.72–1.48 SCP
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:02 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4205902363
- Winner: Frankfurt (43%)
- Spread: SCP +0.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Under 3.5 (60%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
SGE 1.72–1.48 SCP · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): SCP att -0.23 / def -0.06 · SGE att -0.01 / def -0.18 · model SCP 1.8–1.6 SGE
- Home field+0.3 goals to SCP
- RecordSCP 2-4-3 · SGE 3-3-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward SGE +115 / total 3.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SGE | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| SCP | 1 | 1 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 23'
Goal! Paderborn 0, Eintracht Frankfurt 1. Jonathan Burkardt (Eintracht Frankfurt) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Farès Chaïbi.
- GOAL1H 45'
Goal! Paderborn 1, Eintracht Frankfurt 1. Raphael Obermair (Paderborn) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Ruben Müller following a corner.
- GOAL2H 73'
Goal! Paderborn 2, Eintracht Frankfurt 1. Marvin Pieringer (Paderborn) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom left corner.
- GOAL2H 90'+3'
Goal! Paderborn 2, Eintracht Frankfurt 2. Jonathan Burkardt (Eintracht Frankfurt) right footed shot from very close range to the centre of the goal following a corner.
Game leaders
- Jonathan Burkardttotalshots 4
- Lilian BrassierPass 50
- Lilian Brassierdefensiveinterventions 14
- Noah AtuboluSV 1
- Ruben Müllertotalshots 3
- Mattes HansenPass 58
- Tjark Schellerdefensiveinterventions 17
- Nahuel Nicolas NollSV 1
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SGE | SCP | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 13 | 14 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 1 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 6 | 2 |
| Saves | 1 | 1 |
| Possession | 49.1 | 50.9 |
| SHOTS | 16 | 11 |
| ON GOAL | 3 | 3 |
| On Target % | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 1 |
| Accurate Passes | 370 | 398 |
| Passes | 477 | 496 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Accurate Crosses | 4 | 3 |
| Crosses | 12 | 15 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 66 | 61 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 31 | 28 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 5 | 3 |
| Effective Tackles | 13 | 14 |
| Tackles | 18 | 19 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 14 |
| Effective Clearances | 23 | 36 |
| Clearances | 23 | 36 |
At lock SGE 1.72–1.48 SCP · 0.3 goals under 3.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
MissProp A. Knauff · SGE
A. Knauff Over 2.5 shotsJ. Burkardt · SGE
ForwardL. Brassier · SGE
DefenderN. Atubolu · SGE
GoalkeeperR. Müller · SCP
DefenderM. Hansen · SCP
Defender
Data-Driven Pick · A. Knauff Over 2.5 shots
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Frankfurt vs Paderborn pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Under 3.5, with a 59% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
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