BelgiumFri 2:45 PM CTElindus Arena

Club Brugge at Zulte-Waregem

Fri 2:45 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 3.5

55%

At lock BRU 2.74–1.17 ZUL · 0.4 goals over 3.5 · 55% is the confidence saved at lock

Players

N. Tresoldi · BRU
Forward
I. Átrok · ZUL
Midfielder

Club Brugge

8-0-1

Form DWWWW · 22 PF · 6 PA

2.74

Projected

Zulte-Waregem

3-2-4

Form DLLLW · 10 PF · 12 PA

1.17

BRU 68%Draw 17%ZUL 14%

At lock: projected BRU 2.74–1.17 ZUL · most likely 2–1 · likeliest Over 3.5 score 3–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

ZUL win

22%

23% (no-vig)

Total

3.91

3.5

Gap: -1 pts of win %, +0.41 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2025 to Oct 2026 (trained from 2023), 514 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2077 vs old model 0.2337. Added Oct 2026: attack/defence goal ratings from ESPN results (goals only). The v1 column here is the league's home/draw/away base rates, not an older model. No free archive of closing lines for this league yet; the final projection still leans on the DraftKings line.

The model

How this number was built

BRU 2.74–1.17 ZUL · Low confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ZUL att -0.08 / def -0.16 · BRU att +0.53 / def +0.31 · model ZUL 1.2–2.7 BRU
Home field
+0.3 goals to ZUL
Record
ZUL 3-2-4 · BRU 8-0-1

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Nicolo Tresoldi
goals 7
Nicolo Tresoldi
goalsleaders 7

István Átrok
goals 3
István Átrok
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	BRU	ZUL
Goal Difference	16	-2
Total Goals	22	10
Assists	15	8
Goals Against	6	12

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.

Club Brugge vs Zulte-Waregem prediction · Oct 30, 2026

The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 3.5, with a 55% model probability. The model projected Club Brugge 2.7, Zulte-Waregem 1.2 when the pick locked. Model win probability: Zulte-Waregem 14%, Club Brugge 68%, draw 17%. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.

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