RAAL La Louvière at Royal Charleroi SC
FT
2–5
At lock: projected RLL 0.65–1.97 CHA
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:14 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3912432120
- Winner: Royal Charleroi (68%)
- Spread: RLL +1.5 covers (57%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)4
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
RLL 0.65–1.97 CHA · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): CHA att +0.04 / def +0.10 · RLL att -0.28 / def -0.24 · model CHA 2.3–0.9 RLL
- Home field+0.3 goals to CHA
- RecordCHA 8-0-2 · RLL 2-1-7
- Market priorBlended 66% toward CHA -165 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RLL | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| CHA | 2 | 3 | 5 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 6'
Jakob Romsaas (Royal Charleroi SC) Goal at 6'
- RUN1H 33'
Aurelien Scheidler (Royal Charleroi SC) Penalty - Scored at 33'
- OWN GOAL2H 47'
Wagane Faye (RAAL La Louvière) Own Goal at 47'
- GOAL2H 49'
Freddy Mbemba (Royal Charleroi SC) Goal at 49'
- GOAL2H 75'
Léandro Rousseau (RAAL La Louvière) Goal at 75'
- GOAL2H 76'
Mustapha Ubandoma (RAAL La Louvière) Goal at 76'
- GOAL2H 84'
Antoine Colassin (Royal Charleroi SC) Goal at 84'
Game leaders
- Mustapha Ubandomatotalshots 2
- Djibril LamegoPass 40
- Siad Gourvilledefensiveinterventions 10
- Marcos PeanoSV 3
- Aurelien Scheidlertotalshots 6
- Cheick KeitaPass 70
- Kevin Guitondefensiveinterventions 7
- Mohamed KonéSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| RLL | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 12 | 16 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 1 |
| Offsides | 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 5 | 4 |
| Saves | 3 | 2 |
| Possession | 43.3 | 56.7 |
| SHOTS | 10 | 15 |
| ON GOAL | 4 | 6 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 294 | 443 |
| Passes | 389 | 538 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocked Shots | 0 | 0 |
| Effective Tackles | 14 | 16 |
| Tackles | 20 | 26 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Effective Clearances | 0 | 0 |
| Clearances | 27 | 29 |
At lock RLL 0.65–1.97 CHA · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 54% is the confidence saved at lock
HitM. Ubandoma · RLL
ForwardD. Lamego · RLL
DefenderS. Gourville · RLL
DefenderM. Peano · RLL
GoalkeeperA. Scheidler · CHA
ForwardC. Keita · CHA
Defender
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
La Louvière vs Royal Charleroi pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 54% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Belgium picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day