KAA Gent at Lommel SK
FT
0–2
At lock: projected GENT 1.48–1.10 LOM
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:14 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3929209739
- Winner: KAA Gent (46%)
- Spread: LOM +0.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
GENT 1.48–1.10 LOM · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): LOM att -0.11 / def -0.03 · GENT att -0.06 / def +0.16 · model LOM 1.3–1.3 GENT
- Home field+0.3 goals to LOM
- RecordLOM 4-3-3 · GENT 8-1-1
- Market priorBlended 66% toward GENT -115 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GENT | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LOM | 0 | 2 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 82'
Juho Talvitie (Lommel SK) Goal at 82'
- GOAL2H 87'
Djordje Gordic (Lommel SK) Goal at 87'
Game leaders
- Max Deantotalshots 5
- Siebe van der HeydenPass 62
- Maksim Paskotšidefensiveinterventions 14
- Davy RoefSV 4
- Tom Reynerstotalshots 3
Shawn AdewoyePass 89- Timothy Eyomadefensiveinterventions 6
- Matthias PieklakSV 4
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| GENT | LOM | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 10 | 10 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 0 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 3 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 5 | 3 |
| Saves | 4 | 4 |
| Possession | 41.3 | 58.7 |
| SHOTS | 15 | 16 |
| ON GOAL | 4 | 7 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 348 | 527 |
| Passes | 418 | 601 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 4 |
| Effective Tackles | 11 | 9 |
| Tackles | 21 | 14 |
| Tackle % | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Effective Clearances | 0 | 0 |
| Clearances | 33 | 16 |
At lock GENT 1.48–1.10 LOM · 0.1 goals over 2.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissM. Dean · GENT
ForwardS. van der Heyden · GENT
DefenderM. Paskotši · GENT
DefenderD. Roef · GENT
GoalkeeperT. Reyners · LOM
MidfielderS. Adewoye · LOM
Defender
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
KAA Gent vs Lommel SK pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Belgium picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day