Oud-Heverlee Leuven at Sint-Truidense
FT
2–1
At lock: projected OHL 1.00–1.68 STVV
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Oct 31, 11:14 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4029875453
- Winner: Sint-Truidense (54%)
- Spread: STVV -0.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 2.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
OHL 1.00–1.68 STVV · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): STVV att +0.09 / def -0.06 · OHL att -0.34 / def -0.05 · model STVV 2.0–1.0 OHL
- Home field+0.3 goals to STVV
- RecordSTVV 2-2-6 · OHL 2-3-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward STVV -155 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OHL | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| STVV | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 46'
Nathanaël Mbuku (Sint-Truidense) Goal at 46'
- GOAL2H 53'
Robin Mirisola (Oud-Heverlee Leuven) Goal at 53'
- GOAL2H 81'
Davis Opoku (Oud-Heverlee Leuven) Goal at 81'
Game leaders
- Robin Mirisolatotalshots 5
- Roggerio NyakossiPass 31
- Jamie Lawrencedefensiveinterventions 11
- Dani van den HeuvelSV 6
- Nathanaël Mbukutotalshots 7
- Visar MusliuPass 67
- Shogo Taniguchidefensiveinterventions 8
- Leo Brian KokuboSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| OHL | STVV | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 14 | 12 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 9 | 15 |
| Saves | 6 | 2 |
| Possession | 35.5 | 64.5 |
| SHOTS | 21 | 26 |
| ON GOAL | 4 | 7 |
| On Target % | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 241 | 491 |
| Passes | 307 | 565 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocked Shots | 8 | 11 |
| Effective Tackles | 13 | 12 |
| Tackles | 20 | 20 |
| Tackle % | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Effective Clearances | 0 | 0 |
| Clearances | 52 | 23 |
At lock OHL 1.00–1.68 STVV · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 58% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp S. Bazdar anytime goal · STVV
S. Bazdar anytime goalR. Mirisola · OHL
ForwardR. Nyakossi · OHL
DefenderJ. Lawrence · OHL
DefenderD. van den Heuvel · OHL
GoalkeeperN. Mbuku · STVV
Forward
Data-Driven Pick · S. Bazdar anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
OH Leuven vs Sint-Truidense pick result · Nov 1, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 58% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Belgium picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day