Waasland-Beveren at Standard Liege
FT
0–3
At lock: projected WAA 1.14–1.60 STL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 5, 1:18 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3979542596
- Winner: Standard Liege (47%)
- Spread: WAA +0.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
WAA 1.14–1.60 STL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): STL att -0.28 / def +0.09 · WAA att -0.15 / def -0.22 · model STL 1.6–1.1 WAA
- Home field+0.3 goals to STL
- RecordSTL 4-3-4 · WAA 3-1-7
- Market priorBlended 66% toward STL -105 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAA | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| STL | 1 | 2 | 3 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 5'
Dennis Dargahi (Standard Liege) Goal at 5'
- RUN2H 64'
Dennis Dargahi (Standard Liege) Penalty - Scored at 64'
- GOAL2H 67'
Dennis Dargahi (Standard Liege) Goal at 67'
Game leaders
- Elohim Kaborétotalshots 3
Sieben DewaelePass 42- Viktor Boonedefensiveinterventions 11
- Johannes SchenkSV 2
- Dennis Dargahitotalshots 5
- Ryan FossoPass 73
- Ibrahim Karamokodefensiveinterventions 9
- Matthieu EpoloSV 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| WAA | STL | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 17 | 5 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 0 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 2 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks | 5 | 3 |
| Saves | 2 | 3 |
| Possession | 37.9 | 62.1 |
| SHOTS | 9 | 16 |
| ON GOAL | 3 | 5 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 296 | 537 |
| Passes | 375 | 627 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocked Shots | 3 | 6 |
| Effective Tackles | 17 | 7 |
| Tackles | 20 | 10 |
| Tackle % | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Effective Clearances | 0 | 0 |
| Clearances | 34 | 15 |
At lock WAA 1.14–1.60 STL · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 56% is the confidence saved at lock
HitProp D. Dargahi · STL
D. Dargahi anytime goalE. Kaboré · WAA
ForwardS. Dewaele · WAA
MidfielderV. Boone · WAA
DefenderJ. Schenk · WAA
GoalkeeperR. Fosso · STL
Midfielder
Data-Driven Pick · D. Dargahi anytime goal
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Waasland-Beveren vs Standard Liege pick result · Nov 6, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 56% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Belgium picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day