Lommel SK at Antwerp
FT
2–2
At lock: projected LOM 1.23–1.64 ANT
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:44 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3996320215
- Winner: Antwerp (46%)
- Spread: LOM +0.5 covers (54%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (55%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
LOM 1.23–1.64 ANT · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): ANT att -0.14 / def -0.07 · LOM att -0.11 / def -0.03 · model ANT 1.6–1.3 LOM
- Home field+0.3 goals to ANT
- RecordANT 3-2-6 · LOM 4-4-3
- Market priorBlended 66% toward ANT -115 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOM | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| ANT | 1 | 1 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 40'
Snayder Porozo (Antwerp) Goal at 40'
- GOAL2H 47'
Don-Angelo Konadu (Lommel SK) Goal at 47'
- GOAL2H 52'
Modibo Fofana (Antwerp) Goal at 52'
- GOAL2H 66'
Don-Angelo Konadu (Lommel SK) Goal at 66'
Game leaders
- Don-Angelo Konadutotalshots 6
- Timothy EyomaPass 36
Shawn Adewoyedefensiveinterventions 11- Matthias PieklakSV 3
- Bahmed Deufftotalshots 7
- Álvaro CortésPass 66
- Álvaro Cortésdefensiveinterventions 11
- Taishi NozawaSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| LOM | ANT | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 6 | 8 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks | 8 | 9 |
| Saves | 3 | 2 |
| Possession | 44.7 | 55.3 |
| SHOTS | 13 | 25 |
| ON GOAL | 4 | 5 |
| On Target % | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 276 | 367 |
| Passes | 365 | 447 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocked Shots | 5 | 7 |
| Effective Tackles | 12 | 17 |
| Tackles | 20 | 29 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Effective Clearances | 0 | 0 |
| Clearances | 36 | 36 |
At lock LOM 1.23–1.64 ANT · 0.4 goals over 2.5 · 59% is the confidence saved at lock
HitD. Konadu · LOM
ForwardT. Eyoma · LOM
DefenderS. Adewoye · LOM
DefenderM. Pieklak · LOM
GoalkeeperB. Deuff · ANT
MidfielderÁ. Cortés · ANT
Goalkeeper
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Lommel SK vs Antwerp pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 59% model probability — it won. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Belgium picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day