KV Mechelen at Oud-Heverlee Leuven
FT
0–2
At lock: projected KVM 1.15–1.53 OHL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:44 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3778064073
- Winner: OH Leuven (47%)
- Spread: KVM +0.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (50%)
- Score error (both teams)1
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
KVM 1.15–1.53 OHL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): OHL att -0.34 / def -0.05 · KVM att -0.16 / def -0.19 · model OHL 1.5–1.2 KVM
- Home field+0.3 goals to OHL
- RecordOHL 3-3-5 · KVM 3-3-5
- Market priorBlended 66% toward OHL +135 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KVM | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OHL | 0 | 2 | 2 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 50'
Emmanuel Addai (Oud-Heverlee Leuven) Goal at 50'
- GOAL2H 90'+4'
William Balikwisha (Oud-Heverlee Leuven) Goal at 90'+4'
Game leaders
- Thérence Koudoutotalshots 2
Myron van BrederodePass 50
Mike Eerdhuijzendefensiveinterventions 8- Ortwin De WolfSV 4
- Robin Mirisolatotalshots 5
- Siebe SchrijversPass 43
- Ewoud Pletinckxdefensiveinterventions 13
- Dani van den HeuvelSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| KVM | OHL | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 9 | 20 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 3 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 2 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 16 | 6 |
| Saves | 4 | 2 |
| Possession | 56.7 | 43.3 |
| SHOTS | 17 | 17 |
| ON GOAL | 2 | 6 |
| On Target % | 0.1 | 0.4 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 380 | 276 |
| Passes | 462 | 362 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocked Shots | 5 | 4 |
| Effective Tackles | 10 | 14 |
| Tackles | 18 | 21 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Effective Clearances | 0 | 0 |
| Clearances | 22 | 37 |
At lock KVM 1.15–1.53 OHL · 0.2 goals over 2.5 · 53% is the confidence saved at lock
MissT. Koudou · KVM
MidfielderM. van Brederode · KVM
ForwardM. Eerdhuijzen · KVM
DefenderO. De Wolf · KVM
GoalkeeperR. Mirisola · OHL
ForwardS. Schrijvers · OHL
Midfielder
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
KV Mechelen vs OH Leuven pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 53% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Belgium picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day