Cercle Brugge KSV at RAAL La Louvière
FT
1–0
At lock: projected CBK 1.21–1.56 RLL
How close was our sim?
The play-by-play sim is a separate engine from the computer pick; it can lean differently.
Pre-game sim locked Nov 6, 11:44 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3761286454
- Winner: La Louvière (45%)
- Spread: CBK +0.5 covers (55%)
- Total: Over 2.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)2
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
The model
How this number was built
CBK 1.21–1.56 RLL · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Goal ratings (shots-on-target adjusted): RLL att -0.28 / def -0.24 · CBK att -0.08 / def -0.21 · model RLL 1.6–1.6 CBK
- Home field+0.3 goals to RLL
- RecordRLL 2-1-8 · CBK 2-3-6
- Market priorBlended 66% toward CBK +160 / total 2.5
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBK | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| RLL | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 6'
Steve Ngoura (Cercle Brugge KSV) Goal at 6'
Game leaders
- Hannes Van Der Bruggentotalshots 3
- Geoffrey KondoPass 39
- Geoffrey Kondodefensiveinterventions 11
- Gaëtan CouckeSV 1
- Mustapha Ubandomatotalshots 4
- Wagane FayePass 66
- Wagane Fayedefensiveinterventions 6
- Marcos PeanoSV 4
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CBK | RLL | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 17 | 8 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 1 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks | 2 | 6 |
| Saves | 1 | 4 |
| Possession | 38 | 62 |
| SHOTS | 12 | 19 |
| ON GOAL | 5 | 1 |
| On Target % | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 232 | 413 |
| Passes | 314 | 497 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Cross % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls % | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocked Shots | 2 | 10 |
| Effective Tackles | 12 | 8 |
| Tackles | 24 | 13 |
| Tackle % | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Effective Clearances | 0 | 0 |
| Clearances | 43 | 11 |
At lock CBK 1.21–1.56 RLL · 0.3 goals over 2.5 · 49% is the confidence saved at lock
MissH. Van Der Bruggen · CBK
MidfielderG. Kondo · CBK
DefenderG. Coucke · CBK
GoalkeeperM. Ubandoma · RLL
ForwardW. Faye · RLL
DefenderM. Peano · RLL
Goalkeeper
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.
Cercle Brugge vs La Louvière pick result · Nov 7, 2026
The OVERLINE computer pick is Over 2.5, with a 49% model probability — it lost. Lines are DraftKings prices; picks lock at the start of the game and are graded off the official final.
More: Belgium picks today · Graded record · Play of the Day